BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Natera — Blitz Index 52 (C)
A margin-proven diagnostics blitz carrying a $292.5M courtroom verdict — and a market price at twice its own bar.
52Grade C
Confidence: High · Category: frontier
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 17 / 25 | Growth +35.9% → +37.7% on a $2.3B base; clinical MRD volume +56% YoY |
| B · Moat | 33 / 60 | Coverage decisions and guideline entrenchment keep widening, but distribution rides on payer decisions |
| C · Creative destruction | 12 / 15 | Blood-based cancer monitoring replacing tissue-and-wait; Medicare coverage keeps compounding |
| D · BlitzFailing | −10 | Guardant's $292.5M verdict upheld, plus Ravgen's $57M; SBC at 15.4% of revenue |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 55 · Speed 68 · Creative 80.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (borderline). Bar ≈ $28.8B (FY2026E revenue × 10); market cap at ~2.0× the bar is a valuation note, kept out of the gate (BE precedent).
Strengths
- Revenue +35.9% (FY2025) → +37.7% (Q2 2026) — high-30s growth held on a $2.3B base
- Clinical MRD +56% YoY with a record +34,000 quarterly accession — the second curve accelerating
- Gross margin 64.7% with positive operating cash flow ($215.3M) and FCF — the margin ramp completed
- FY2026 guidance raised ($2.85–2.91B) and two Japan PMDA approvals extend the map
Concerns
- Guardant $292.5M (upheld, on appeal) plus Ravgen $57M — a final loss takes ~32% of cash
- Operating loss of $309.9M (FY2025): R&D +54% and SG&A +40% erase the margin ramp below the line
- SBC of $354.4M (15.4% of revenue) dilutes with no buyback offset
- Market cap of ~$56.7B (P/S ~20–25×) is a price the 52-point business score does not support
Next earnings
Nov 5, 2026 · Expected
Coverage
Natera, Inc. · Q3 2026 due Nov 5, 2026 (expected) · Score 52 · Grade C
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.