BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Affirm — Blitz Index 59 (C)
$50B of GMV and the first operating profit — but Amazon is 22% of it.
59Grade C
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 20 / 25 | GMV $50.2B — 2.5x in 3 years at 30%+; repeat rate 96% × 7.0 transactions per consumer |
| B · Moat | 37 / 60 | Transaction data improves underwriting (10-K); Affirm Card 15% of volume — the D2C leg growing |
| C · Creative destruction | 11 / 15 | Credit-card replacement thesis — G2 passes only if the substitution scenario holds |
| D · BlitzFailing | −9 | Amazon 22% + top 5 partners 44%; $1.5B of $1.93B net income is a non-cash tax reversal; loss cost 18.7% of revenue |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 61.7 · Speed 80 · Creative 73.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (conditional). 6 points below the threshold — profitability turned, concentration didn't.
Strengths
- GMV 2.5x in 3 years ($20.2B→$50.2B, SEC) — consistent 30%+ growth
- Repeat 96% × 7.0x per consumer — the network deepens, quantified
- First operating profit (+$417M, SEC) — scale economics working
- Affirm Card at 15% of volume — the high-growth D2C leg
Concerns
- ~$1.5B of $1.93B net income is a non-cash tax reversal — headline profit distorted
- Amazon 22% + top 5 at 44% — the Walmart→Klarna precedent
- Klarna's post-IPO US push — BNPL round two intensifies
- Loss costs at 18.7% of revenue — a credit-cycle turn hits directly
Next earnings
Nov 5, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
Affirm Holdings, Inc. · Q1 FY2027 due Nov 5, 2026 (AMC, confirmed) · Score 59 · Grade C
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.