Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. — Blitz Index 57 (C)
A blockchain lending marketplace growing 84% on 10-day HELOC execution — held back by a falling take rate and a gate that passes only because Kiavi added a second market.
Last re-scored: November 13, 2026.
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 20 / 25 | Net revenue +84% YoY and volume +135% in Q3, with standalone volume +107% ex-Kiavi and partners doubling — but the take rate is falling (gross 5.2% → 3.9%) |
| B · Moat | 38 / 60 | A two-sided marketplace with 894 partners and a DART registry that binds ownership on-chain, plus a 58% adjusted EBITDA margin — but the moat is still forming and the gate passes only on a borderline |
| C · Creative destruction | 11 / 15 | Ten-day, $717 HELOC execution displacing a 43-day, $11,109 paper process, with Kiavi opening a second market in investor loans |
| D · BlitzFailing | −12 | Debt above equity with an 8.5% coupon (D1 −4), HELOC concentration plus Kiavi credit risk (D2 −3), and a controlled-company voting lock (D3 −3) — no flag, but 12 points of drag |
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Radar axes (0–100): Moat 63.3 · Speed 80 · Creative 73.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (confirmed — standalone volume +107% YoY ex-Kiavi, partners 307→612, FY2025 and 9M 2026 profitable with the accumulated deficit cleared) · G2 ✓ (estimated — the wedge is HELOC + RTL at ~$511B/year against a $8.40B bar, needing ~47% share today and ~29% on a 10-year view; HELOC-only would need 89% and fail). 8 points below the 65-point threshold — the speed is top-tier and the balance sheet is strong, but the take rate is falling and the moat is still thin. Watch the take rate (Q4 guidance 3.1–3.4%), Kiavi credit costs, and whether the controlled-company structure constrains governance.
Strengths
- Volume +135% YoY · net revenue +84% YoY · 9M net income $221.8M — growth and profitability proven at once
- Origination cost of $717 per loan vs an industry $11,109 — a 15x cost-structure gap (C3 4)
- 612 standalone partners (2x in nine months) + Figure Connect at 72% — the capital-light marketplace transition, measured
- Accumulated deficit cleared (retained earnings +$35.0M) + cash $1.59B — the balance sheet turned
- Prime matched offers $588M · SMB run-rate $500M — the seeds of a second curve
Concerns
- Take rate falling (gross 5.2% → 3.9% → Q4 guidance 3.1–3.4%) — a signal of weakening pricing power
- HELOC concentration (98% of 2025 originations) plus Kiavi credit risk plus 8.5% high-yield borrowing — the substance of 12 demerit points
- Cagney and Ou control a majority of voting power (controlled company) — the structural factor behind D3 −3
- Gate 2 is borderline: filling the bar needs share of ~5% → ~29% in ten years, in a HELOC market where banks and credit unions hold 89%
- Material weakness in internal controls (2024) — claimed remediated in 2025, but no SOX 404 attestation yet
Research notes
Thesis: blockchain execution, 84% growth
Figure Technology Solutions enters the BlitzLab record with a first scoring of 57 out of 100, grade C, built from Speed 20 out of 25, Moat 38 out of 60, Creative Destruction 11 out of 15, and deductions of 12. The total sits 8 points below the 65-point line, and the shape of the score is the story: on the radar conversion used by the model, Speed converts to 80.0, Creative Destruction to 73.3, and Moat to 63.3. This is a blockchain-native capital-markets platform — trailing-twelve-month net revenue of $839.6 million — whose HELOC business closes loans in a median of ten days at $717 per loan against an industry of 43 days and $11,109, whose partner count doubled to 612 standalone in nine months, and whose Kiavi acquisition (closed September 1, 2026) added a second market in investor real-estate loans. Both gates pass, but the second passes only as an estimate, on a wedge of HELOC plus investor loans that needs a 29% share on a ten-year view, and the take rate that funds the margin is falling. The fourth quarter of 2026 has not been reported at T, and its reporting date is unconfirmed — it is not a company-confirmed date and must not be presented as one — and no outcome is anticipated here. That is the balance of the record at T: speed that is real, a moat that is still forming, a take rate under pressure, and a second curve that has just begun.
The gates: both pass — growth proven, market ample on the stated definition
Gate 1, two pieces of product-market-fit evidence for a growth company, passes on a confirmed basis. Standalone volume excluding Kiavi grew 107% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, active partners rose from 307 at the end of 2025 to 612 standalone (894 including Kiavi) by September 30, 2026, and the company is profitable — net income of $134.3 million in fiscal 2025 and $221.8 million in the first nine months of 2026, with the accumulated deficit cleared to retained earnings of positive $35.0 million. The second growth curve is Kiavi: investor real-estate loans contributed $677 million of volume in the third quarter (one month), SMB lending passed a $500 million run-rate, and Prime matched offers reached $588 million. Gate 2, a ten-year market ceiling at least ten times current revenue, also passes, but the file declares its market definition before doing the arithmetic and marks the verdict as an estimate. Revenue is GAAP net revenue, since the business is a marketplace whose revenue is volume-linked fees. The bar is about $8.40 billion, ten times trailing-twelve-month net revenue of $839.6 million. The addressable market is the take rate times volume: at a net take rate of 3.5%, the bar needs about $240 billion of annual volume. The wedge that can support it is HELOC originations of about $271 billion plus investor loans of $200 billion or more plus closed-end home equity of about $40 billion — roughly $511 billion a year — needing about 47% share today and about 29% on a ten-year view at 5% annual growth. HELOC alone would need 89% and fail, so the verdict stands only because Kiavi made investor loans a real business. The deductions are the other half of the gate story: 12 points — debt at minus 4, revenue quality at minus 3, governance at minus 3, and regulatory cost at minus 2 — so the company is not flagged. If the take rate keeps falling or Kiavi credit costs rise, the deductions deepen; if the take rate stabilises and the second curve scales, they ease.
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Other Platforms names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: Alphabet (83/A), Meta (78/B), Airbnb (76/B).
Next earnings
Not announced.
Coverage
Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. · Q3 2026 reported Nov 12, 2026 · Score 57 · Grade C
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.