BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Nu Holdings — Blitz Index 65 (B)
ROE 33% and 39–56% FXN growth across 8 quarters — Mexico repeats the Brazil S-curve while the credit cycle watches.
65Grade B
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 21 / 25 | 8 straight quarters of 39–56% FXN growth; Q2 2026 net income $1.06B (+49% FXN), ROE 33% |
| B · Moat | 38 / 60 | Zero branches, near-zero CAC; 42.0% IFRS gross margin; lock-in is primary-account depth, not network effects |
| C · Creative destruction | 14 / 15 | Displacing Brazil's fee-heavy branch banking — 118M customers, #3 institution; efficiency ratio 19.5% vs incumbents 40–50% |
| D · BlitzFailing | −8 | Vélez ~74.3% vote; 90-day+ delinquency 6.9% (+35bp YoY); 85% interest-income dependence |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 63.3 · Speed 84 · Creative 93.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓. Exactly on the 65 line — first score. A 73-point business minus 8 points of governance and credit-cycle demerits.
Strengths
- 8 straight quarters of 39–56% FXN growth with quarterly net income topping $1B (Q2 2026)
- Mexico 15.8M customers at breakeven — the Brazil S-curve repeating (ARPAC $12.3, 2.2x Brazil at the same stage)
- ROE 33% + risk-adjusted NIM 12.4%, both all-time highs — best-in-class banking profitability
- Funding cost at 87% of the interbank rate + $45.3B deposits — deposits are the blitz fuel
Concerns
- 90-day+ delinquency 6.9% (+35bp YoY) with Brazilian household debt at record highs — the credit cycle is the weather
- 85% interest-income dependence — rate and macro shocks flow straight into NII
- Vélez ~74.3% voting control + controlled-company status — founder rule without checks
- Brazil adult penetration ~60% — domestic customer-count growth is capped, monetization must carry it
Next earnings
Nov 12, 2026 · Expected
Coverage
Nu Holdings Ltd. · Q3 2026 due Nov 12, 2026 (expected) · Score 65 · Grade B
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.