Veracyte, Inc. — Blitz Index 58 (C)
Veracyte scores 58 — a profitable cancer-diagnostics business (70.1% gross margin, operating profit) whose second curve is still proving its speed.
Confidence: High · Category: frontier
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 16 / 25 | Revenue +23.5% (FY2024) → +16.0% (FY2025, $517.1M) → Q2 2026 +15%; testing +19% in Q2; Decipher volume +27% (FY2025) |
| B · Moat | 34 / 60 | Evidence flywheel (800,000+ patients, 100+ prostate papers) → NCCN Level 1 + full Medicare coverage for Decipher prostate; 70.1% FY2025 gross margin, operating margin +11.2% |
| C · Creative destruction | 12 / 15 | PSA/Gleason-only risk stratification replaced by Decipher 22-gene classification; Afirma avoiding unnecessary thyroid surgery; TrueMRD blood-based recurrence monitoring entering |
| D · BlitzFailing | −4 | Payer concentration (Medicare+UHC 47%); Q2 ASP includes $4.5M prior-period collections true-up; patent suit as plaintiff (Sonic Healthcare, jury trial 2027-Q1); DEF 14A governance unverified (recorded gap) |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 56.7 · Speed 64 · Creative 80.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (borderline, estimate — combined ceiling ~$10B+ ≈ 1.7x the $5.93B bar, resting on two new products). 7 points below the threshold — first score.
Strengths
- Revenue +16.0% (FY2025) → testing +19% (Q2 2026) — double digits held on a $0.56B base (SEC)
- Decipher +27% (FY2025) → +20% (Q2); volume ~102,000 cases (FY2025) → ~29,700 in the quarter — the core engine sustaining
- GM 70.1% → 72.2% + operating margin +15.8% (H1 2026) + FCF TTM ~$166M — margin and cash generation in the proven zone
- FY2026 guidance raised ($590–596M, Q2) — management confidence quantified (press)
- TrueMRD MolDX coverage + launch (May/Jun 2026) · Prosigna U.S. launch — two second curves proving at once
- NCCN Level 1 + full Medicare coverage — guideline and reimbursement as an institutional moat
- Effectively debt-free + $485.2M cash + SBC 8.4% — a light balance sheet and dilution load
Concerns
- Growth decelerating (+23.5% → +16.0% → Q2 +15%) — Decipher also slowing (+27% → +20%)
- Prosigna Medicare coverage not secured — breast axis unproven; 100+ institutions contacted, conversion to revenue unconfirmed
- Payer concentration (Medicare+UHC 47%) — one payer policy change disrupts distribution
- TrueMRD revenue contribution undisclosed — MIBC single-indication volume unproven; full MRD TAM cannot be read straight into the ceiling (G2 borderline basis)
- Patent suit as plaintiff (Sonic Healthcare, jury trial 2027-Q1) — cost and management distraction risk
- FDA LDT enforcement-discretion risk + Haifa operations geopolitical exposure (press)
- DEF 14A governance unverified — direct review required at rescore (recorded gap)
More Frontier companies
Other Frontier names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: Rocket Lab (62/B), Tesla (62/B), Illumina, Inc. (60/B).
Next earnings
Nov 4, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
Veracyte, Inc. · Q3 2026 due Nov 4, 2026 (AMC) · Score 58 · Grade C
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.