Illumina, Inc. — Blitz Index 60 (B)
Illumina scores 60 — the sequencing incumbent whose NovaSeq X transition and clinical engine just clear the B threshold.
Confidence: High · Category: frontier
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 16 / 25 | TTM +4.9%, Q2 +9.4% (organic +6.5%), H1 +7.1% — fastest growth since the current CEO joined; FY2026 guidance raised to $4,600–4,640M |
| B · Moat | 40 / 60 | Installed-base razor/blade + DRAGEN/software ecosystem; NovaSeq X at 83% of high-throughput volumes, 78% of clinical volume; 66.1% FY2025 gross margin |
| C · Creative destruction | 12 / 15 | Sanger sequencing and microarrays displaced by high-throughput NGS; clinical ~65% of sequencing consumables and +~17% in H1 |
| D · BlitzFailing | −8 | China UEL listing + instrument-export ban (2025) with uncapped penalty range; GRAIL acquisition ended in EU-ordered divestiture and 2024 spin-off; gross debt ~$1.99B |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 66.7 · Speed 64 · Creative 80.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (moderate pass) · G2 ✓ (estimate — bar ≈ $44.93B vs $35–70B genomics market plus clinical/multiomics wedge). 5 points below the threshold — first score.
Strengths
- Return to growth with breadth: Q2 +9.4% (organic +6.5%), instruments +31%, FY2026 guide raised to $4,600–4,640M
- NovaSeq X transition at scale: 83% of high-throughput volumes, 78% of clinical volume, 95+ Q2 placements
- Clinical engine: ~65% of sequencing consumables, +~17% in H1, U.S./Canada clinical >+20% in Q2 (press)
- GM 66.4% and rising; GAAP operating margin 21.1% in Q2; FCF $931M in FY2025
- Clean leverage: net debt ≈ $0.82B ex-leases; $1.0B CP program undrawn; S&P 500 inclusion Sep 2026
- Multiomics extension: SomaLogic (Jan 2026) + SpliceAI2 (Oct 2026) widen the moat beyond DNA reads
Concerns
- Two flat-to-down years precede the inflection; research demand remains funding-constrained with no recovery expected in 2026 (press)
- China: UEL listing + instrument-export ban, Greater China −$65M in 2025, ~7% of revenue at risk with uncapped penalty range
- GRAIL: the defining capital-allocation failure in scored history (spin-off 2024 after multi-billion impairments)
- Tariff drag + $23M intangible impairment hit 2025 margins; FY2026 adjusted margin guide (23.4–23.6%) still trails the Q2 GAAP trajectory's promise
More Frontier companies
Other Frontier names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: Rocket Lab (62/B), Tesla (62/B), Veracyte, Inc. (58/C).
Next earnings
Oct 29, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
Illumina, Inc. · Q3 2026 due Oct 29, 2026 (AMC) · Score 60 · Grade B
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.