BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Duolingo — Blitz Index 56 (C)
Growth is decelerating — the lock-in isn't.
56Grade C
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 16 / 25 | 12 straight quarters of revenue growth; bookings guide cut 33% → 11% |
| B · Moat | 37 / 60 | DAU 58.7M · ~84% retention; content flywheel 10× (AI-generated) |
| C · Creative destruction | 9 / 15 | Math/music/chess second curves; DET expansion |
| D · BlitzFailing | −6 | Founder voting ~76%; $256.7M one-time tax benefit in FY2025 profit |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 62 · Speed 64 · Creative 60.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 borderline (bar ≈ $11.45B vs $19.7B TAM). 9 points below the threshold — first score. Debt-free, $1.18B cash.
Strengths
- 60M DAU approaching
- FCF $360M FY2025
- DET scale
Concerns
- Bookings deceleration (−59% price in 12 months — price not scored)
- Permanent governance discount
Next earnings
Nov 3, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
Duolingo, Inc. · Q3 2026 due Nov 3, 2026 (AMC) · Score 56 · Grade C
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.