BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Recursion Pharmaceuticals — Blitz Index 44 (C)
Partnership-routed PMF — the second case after CRISPR — where partner cash is real and realized gross margin is 5%.
44Grade C
Confidence: High · Category: frontier
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 15 / 25 | Milestone-driven revenue is lumpy ($5–36M quarters); Sanofi exercised its first candidate option on Oct 15, 2026 |
| B · Moat | 24 / 60 | A ~60PB proprietary data moat, but a realized gross margin of 5% — revenue is closer to cost reimbursement |
| C · Creative destruction | 9 / 15 | AI-first drug discovery reached its first pharma-pipeline adoption; TUPELO cut polyp burden (median −47%) |
| D · BlitzFailing | −4 | Near-zero debt, but a ~$90–95M quarterly burn funded by repeated dilution |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 40 · Speed 60 · Creative 60.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (partnership-routed PMF, CRSP precedent) · G2 ✓ (borderline). Bar ≈ $549M on TTM collaboration revenue; milestone potential is a contract ceiling, not a market, and was excluded.
Strengths
- Sanofi's first option exercise (Oct 15, 2026) — a platform asset entered a major pharma pipeline; $300M+ more in milestones plus double-digit royalties
- TUPELO (REC-4881, FAP): polyp burden fell in 87% of patients (median −47%), no Grade 3+ treatment events; registrational trial planned 2H 2027
- Partner cash in exceeds $500M cumulative (Roche $213M, Sanofi $144M) — repeat purchases by four large pharmas
- A $200M raise extended the runway into 2029, with essentially no debt
Concerns
- Product revenue is $0 and realized gross margin is 5.0% — revenue reimburses costs more than it sells output
- Quarterly revenue swings $5.2M–$35.5M — a single milestone makes or breaks a quarter
- Net loss of $644.8M (FY2025) and a $2.3B accumulated deficit — dilution is structural, not episodic
- 100% of revenue depends on four partners' priorities (10-K risk factors)
Next earnings
Nov 4, 2026 · Unconfirmed
Coverage
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · Q3 2026 due Nov 4, 2026 (unconfirmed) · Score 44 · Grade C
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.