BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Axon — Blitz Index 51 (C)
10 straight quarters above 30% growth — but the accountants keep rewriting the past.
51Grade C
Confidence: High · S&P 500 · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 18 / 25 | Q2'26 revenue $904.4M (+35.3%) — 10 straight quarters above 30%; ARR $1.639B (+39%), NRR 126% |
| B · Moat | 32 / 60 | Evidence.com data gravity + 80%+ integration usage as switching barrier; RPO $9.9B + $15.1B future contracted bookings |
| C · Creative destruction | 10 / 15 | TASER→software→drones: AI Era Plan +700% y/y; Dedrone at $100M/quarter — the drone leg monetizing |
| D · BlitzFailing | −9 | Unresolved revenue-recognition material weakness + restatement history; 83% US revenue with non-appropriation termination clauses; FY2025 GAAP operating loss −$62.1M |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 53.3 · Speed 72 · Creative 66.7.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (conditional on commercial penetration). 14 points below the threshold — an A-grade business with C-grade accounting trust.
Strengths
- 10 straight quarters of 30%+ growth, Q2'26 $904.4M (+35.3%) — sustained blitz at scale
- ARR $1.639B (+39%), NRR 126% — the SaaS engine is now the body
- RPO $9.9B + $15.1B future contracted bookings — years of visibility
- AI Era Plan +700% y/y, Draft One — AI bundle proving per-seat expansion
Concerns
- Unresolved revenue-recognition material weakness + restatement history — structural accounting discount
- 83% US revenue + non-appropriation termination clauses — political/budget cycle exposure
- FY2025 GAAP operating loss −$62.1M despite +33.5% revenue — $634M SBC drag
- Half the claimed $159B TAM (commercial/private) is weakly held — G2's real variable
Next earnings
Nov 2026 · Expected
Coverage
Axon Enterprise, Inc. · Q3 2026 due early Nov 2026 (expected) · Score 51 · Grade C
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.