BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Rubrik — Blitz Index 58 (C)
Subscription ARR +33% with net retention above 120% — a real data-security blitz whose market price already sits above its own growth bar.
58Grade C
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 18 / 25 | Subscription ARR $1,660.9M (+33%), Cloud ARR +39%; FY2026 revenue +48.5% as the subscription transition completed (96% of revenue) |
| B · Moat | 36 / 60 | Data-gravity lock-in once backups centralize — genuine switching costs, but no network effect; position, not flywheel |
| C · Creative destruction | 10 / 15 | Made recovery — not prevention — the center of gravity in security buying as ransomware changed the question |
| D · BlitzFailing | −6 | GAAP losses are mostly SBC; the −6 sits in dilution and dual-class structure, not revenue quality |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 60 · Speed 72 · Creative 66.7.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (estimate — the 10-K discloses no quantified TAM). Bar ≈ $16.9B (FY2027E guidance × 10); the ~$23.5B market cap already prices past it — a valuation note, not a gate factor.
Strengths
- Subscription ARR +33% to $1,660.9M and Cloud ARR +39% — growth held through the end of the transition
- Net retention above 120% — expansion inside the installed base is the engine
- RPO $2,400M (+32.5%) gives contracted visibility into FY2027
- GAAP gross margin normalized to 80.1% in FY2026 once IPO vesting rolled off
Concerns
- Market cap ~$23.5B vs a $16.9B bar — the price has prepaid growth the filings have not delivered yet
- FY2027 guidance (+28% revenue) already decelerates; ARR growth is gliding 39% → 33%
- GAAP operating losses persist and SBC is the bulk of them — dilution is the real cost
- CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and Veeam all contest the same data-security budget
Next earnings
Dec 3, 2026 · Expected
Coverage
Rubrik, Inc. · Q3 FY2027 due Dec 3, 2026 (expected) · Score 58 · Grade C
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.