BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Sea Limited — Blitz Index 63 (B)
Shrinking Garena dependence while Shopee defends against TikTok Shop.
63Grade B
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 16 / 25 | FY2025 revenue $22.94B (+36.4%); Q2 2026 +48.1% — accelerating at $20B+ scale; Shopee GMV +28.4%, take rate 11.4%→12.8% |
| B · Moat | 42 / 60 | Shopee ~53% SE-Asia GMV share (6 markets #1); Monee $11.1B loan book at 1.0% NPL — the embedded-credit flywheel |
| C · Creative destruction | 11 / 15 | Mobile-commerce standard in Southeast Asia; the disruptor now being disrupted by TikTok Shop (Thailand reversal) |
| D · BlitzFailing | −6 | Forrest Li 57.6% voting control (Class B 15:1); India Free Fire ban precedent — geopolitical exposure |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 70 · Speed 64 · Creative 73.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (borderline — 3-segment TAM required). 2 points below the line — MELI's past, SE's present.
Strengths
- Q2 2026 revenue +48.1% — highest in 4 years at $20B+ scale (SEC)
- take rate 11.4%→12.8% — volume and price rising together
- Shopee + Monee adjusted EBITDA turned positive — the profitability blitz, proven
- Monee loan book $11.1B (+62.5%) at 1.0% NPL — credit quality holding
Concerns
- TikTok Shop counterattack — Thailand reversal, 2× growth across SE Asia
- Single-segment e-commerce TAM falls short of the G2 bar — the 3-segment sum is the premise
- Forrest Li 57.6% voting control on minority economics
- $18.96B debt + expanding loan book — cyclical vulnerability
Next earnings
Nov 10, 2026 · Before open · Expected
Coverage
Sea Limited · Q3 2026 due Nov 10, 2026 (BMO, expected) · Score 63 · Grade B
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.