BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Advanced Micro Devices — Blitz Index 60 (B)
OpenAI and Meta each signed 6GW — demand visibility does not get better than this.
60Grade B
Confidence: High · S&P 500 · Nasdaq-100 · Category: ai-infra
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 19 / 25 | Q2 2026 +50% YoY; Data Center +107%; $41.3B TTM base |
| B · Moat | 35 / 60 | 6GW multi-year contracts with OpenAI·Meta (SEC); Helios rack-scale at 9 sites |
| C · Creative destruction | 9 / 15 | System-company pivot: rack-scale AI from chips to turnkey |
| D · BlitzFailing | −3 | ~20% warrant dilution overhang; China 22.4% export-control exposure |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 58 · Speed 76 · Creative 60.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (borderline, company TAM estimate). 5 points below the threshold — first score. The warrant structure converts customer lock-in into shareholder dilution.
Strengths
- Q3 2026 guidance ~$13.0B (+41% YoY, SEC)
- 6GW contracts each from OpenAI and Meta (SEC-confirmed)
- Net cash ~+$9.9B + $5B revolver undrawn
- GAAP GM 53.8% (Q2); FCF FY2025 $5.5B
Concerns
- Warrants could dilute ~20% (~320M shares) if fully vested
- AI accelerator share: NVIDIA 90%+ reality vs 6GW still in contract stage
- China 22.4% of revenue — MI308 $800M reserve precedent
- ROCm trails CUDA — no software-ecosystem moat (B1 5)
Next earnings
Nov 3, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. · Q3 2026 due Nov 3, 2026 (AMC) · Score 60 · Grade B
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.