Elastic N.V. — Blitz Index 63 (B)
Elastic scores 63 — a re-accelerating search platform two points below the 65 line, with record enterprise customer adds and a margin guide to prove.
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 18 / 25 | FY2026 +17.3% → TTM +16.2%, Q1 FY2027 +15.1% (constant-currency acceleration); $100k+ customers +80 net adds (record quarter) |
| B · Moat | 39 / 60 | One search/data foundation under search, observability, security; 76.1% FY2026 gross margin; $100k+ AI usage 37% — but AI revenue undisclosed, S&M 40.8% of revenue |
| C · Creative destruction | 11 / 15 | Fragmented legacy (keyword search, APM/log tools, legacy SIEM) consolidating onto one platform; CISA SIEM-as-a-service expansion as proof |
| D · BlitzFailing | −5 | SBC $298.4M (17.2% of revenue) outruns buybacks; FY2026 GAAP profit depends on a $434.9M one-off tax valuation-allowance release (GAAP operating loss −$33.5M) |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 65 · Speed 72 · Creative 73.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (estimate — bar ≈ $18.0B vs $100B+ search/observability/security TAM). 2 points below the threshold — first score.
Strengths
- Revenue +17% (FY2026) → TTM +16.2% with constant-currency acceleration — re-acceleration, not decline
- Sales-led subscription +18–20%, cloud +22% — 94% subscription mix
- cRPO +21%, RPO +27%, non-current RPO +43% — sold future rising
- $100k+ customers +80 net adds (record quarter); $1M+ cohort >240; $5M+ cohort +30%
- Net cash ~$890M + 20% adjusted FCF margin — self-funded growth
- AI penetration 37% among $100k+ customers (670+ customers) — embedding as the retrieval layer
Concerns
- Net revenue retention 112% → 111% — existing-customer expansion cooling
- Gross margin 76.7% → 74.5% in Q1 — serverless and inference costs biting
- SBC $298M (17.2% of revenue) — buybacks do not offset dilution
- FY2026 GAAP profit rests on a $434.9M one-off tax release — headline overstates the operating picture
- AI revenue undisclosed — the AI thesis has no revenue proof yet
- OpenSearch fork (AWS-backed) as a standing competitive overhang
More Platforms companies
Other Platforms names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: Alphabet (82/A), Meta (78/B), Snowflake (76/B).
Next earnings
Nov 19, 2026 · Expected
Coverage
Elastic N.V. · Q2 FY2027 due Nov 19, 2026 (expected) · Score 63 · Grade B
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.