BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen) · Unlisted · press-reported range
Anduril Industries — Blitz Index 52–72 (C–B)
Defense prime destroyer — an equity-fuelled blitz before the appropriations arrive.
52–72Grade C–B
Confidence: Low · Category: unlisted
Range score based on press-reported figures (unaudited). Confidence: Low. Listed-company audited figures are not available for this company.
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 19–23 / 25 | Revenue ~$457M (2023, reported) → $2.2B (2025, company release); Army $20B IDIQ + CCA production award (Jun 2026, DoD) |
| B · Moat | 33–40 / 60 | Lattice software layer + Army $20B ordering vehicle as distribution; no disclosed margins, ~$1.2B operating loss projected |
| C · Creative destruction | 11–14 / 15 | IVAS novation from Microsoft — a startup taking over the failed prime program; CCA built alongside GA |
| D · BlitzFailing | −5 ~ −11 | All-equity capital stack: the real cost is dilution; $20B ceiling is not funding — "no money attached" |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 55–67 · Speed 76–92 · Creative 73–93.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (programs of record: CCA, RAN Australia) · G2 ✓ estimated (reported revenue × 10 vs defense TAM).
Strengths
- 2025 revenue $2.2B — ~3 years of doubling (company release, reported)
- Lattice institutionalized: Army $20B vehicle makes it the C2 backbone (DoD)
- IVAS takeover from Microsoft — the most direct prime displacement measured
- Self-funded Arsenal-1: $1B-scale factory before appropriations arrived
Concerns
- Ceiling ≠ money: first task order only $87M — ceiling-to-booking speed is everything
- No winner-take-most: GA shares CCA, Shield AI split the Fury software
- FY2027 budget approval required for Fury production (reported)
- Governance: Luckey super-voting + Project Meridian conflict reports
Next earnings
Not announced.
Coverage
As of October 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen) · Private company — all figures press-reported · Not investment advice — a scholar's assessment.
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.