BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Powell Industries — Blitz Index 47 (C)
Backlog 2× revenue but production is the bottleneck — $400M of it anonymous.
47Grade C
Confidence: High · Category: power
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 16 / 25 | Quarterly orders $934M (+158%, record) · book-to-bill 3.0 vs revenue +9% — the execution gap |
| B · Moat | 28 / 60 | Backlog $2.4B (+69%); DC $400M+ record single order; mix shift from petrochem (−49%) to DC+Utility |
| C · Creative destruction | 8 / 15 | Channel-shift blitz: same switchgear, new markets |
| D · BlitzFailing | −5 | Anonymous $400M (~17% of backlog); 3 straight EPS misses vs consensus |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 46.7 · Speed 64 · Creative 53.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (borderline — 10× in 10 years needs secular DC+grid demand). Capacity (Jacintoport, FY2026-end) is the unlock.
Strengths
- Quarterly orders $934M (+158%, record) · book-to-bill 3.0 — demand visibility at its best
- Backlog $2.4B (+69%) ≈ 2× FY2026 revenue; DC $400M+ largest single order ever
- Gross margin 21.1% → 29.4% in 2 years — margin proof complete; debt-free + $634M cash
- Petrochemical −49% absorbed by DC/Utility mix shift — 'de-cycling' evidenced in the mix
Concerns
- Revenue can't catch orders — capacity bottleneck; anonymous $400M ≈ 17% of backlog
- 3 straight quarters of EPS consensus misses — narrative vs. numbers gap
- ETO project business remains cyclical — 'mitigated', not solved
- Raw materials 45% of revenue — steel/copper/aluminum exposure
Next earnings
Nov 17, 2026 · Expected
Coverage
Powell Industries, Inc. · Q4 FY2026 due ~Nov 17, 2026 (expected) · Score 47 · Grade C
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.