BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Forgent Power Solutions — Blitz Index 50 (C)
Power-train bundling turned a roll-up into an organic grower — margins are the entrance ticket.
50Grade C
Confidence: High · Category: power
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 19 / 25 | FY2026 $1.42B (+88.6% same-store); Q4 orders $1.5B exceeded FY revenue (book-to-bill 3.3×) |
| B · Moat | 31 / 60 | Power-train $1.4M → $357M in 2 years — system bundling is the moat; DC mix 42% → 59% |
| C · Creative destruction | 8 / 15 | Component-to-solution shift redefining the value chain |
| D · BlitzFailing | −8 | Neos 37.2% voting + $339M TRA + sponsor fees — PE overhang; Q1 FY27 margin dip flagged |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 51.7 · Speed 76 · Creative 53.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (thin margin — optimistic ceiling 1.1–1.4× the bar). H2 margin absorption is the re-rating condition.
Strengths
- FY2026 +88.6% same-store growth — honest growth with all 4 acquisitions pre-dating FY2025
- Backlog $3.0B (+256% YoY), 3 straight quarterly records; Q4 book-to-bill 3.3× — a quarter's orders exceeded FY revenue
- Power-train $1.4M → $357M in 2 years; DC mix 42% → 59%
- FY2027 guidance +76% revenue · +86% adj EBITDA · +95% adj EPS — 'above the IPO outlook'
Concerns
- Gross margin 36.9% → 35.0% + flagged Q1 FY27 dip (~21% adj EBITDA margin) — blitz investment's toll
- G2 pass is thin (optimistic ceiling 1.1–1.4× the bar) — rests on share assumptions
- One 10%+ customer (unnamed); Neos 37.2% voting + $339M TRA + sponsor fees — PE overhang
- Backlog is PO-based and cancellable; listed 8 months — short disclosure history
Next earnings
mid-Nov 2026 · Expected
Coverage
Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. · Q1 FY2027 due mid-Nov 2026 (expected) · Score 50 · Grade C
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.