American Superconductor Corporation — Blitz Index 39 (D)
American Superconductor scores 39 — a grid-equipment company growing +42.8% a quarter with a $423.1M backlog, held back by acquisition-driven growth, the thinnest moat of the recent trio, and a Wind division that is one customer.
Last re-scored: November 10, 2026.
Confidence: Medium · Category: power
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 15 / 25 | Total revenue FY2024 $222.8M → FY2025 $299.2M → TTM $349.0M, Q2 +42.8% YoY — but two-thirds of the Q2 increase is the Comtrafo acquisition; organic like-for-like growth is +18.8%, and Q3 guidance steps down sequentially |
| B · Moat | 22 / 60 | Grid equipment and wind-turbine controls with a large transformer market behind them — but hardware carries little network effect (B1 4), distribution is direct utility sales (B2 5), and margins are falling (B4 5) |
| C · Creative destruction | 10 / 15 | Power electronics and wind controls displace ageing grids and fossil generation across a grid-modernisation market growing to $81.97B by 2030 — an industry-wide shift AMSC joins rather than leads |
| D · BlitzFailing | −8 | Inox Wind is 18% of total revenue and 100% of Wind (D2 −5), share count up 55% in two years (D1 −2), and a remediated material weakness in Comtrafo purchase accounting drew an adverse ICFR opinion (D2) |
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Radar axes (0–100): Moat 36.7 · Speed 60.0 · Creative 66.7.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (confirmed — organic like-for-like growth +18.8% in Q2 and +15.9% in H1, plus a $423.1M remaining-performance-obligation backlog at 1.21× TTM revenue) · G2 ✓ (confirmed — the power-transformer market at $30.38B in 2025, $41.62B by 2030, clears the ~$3.49B bar 8.7× on 2025 figures alone). 26 points below the 65-point threshold — first score. Watch: whether Inox Wind's share of revenue keeps rising, whether the Grid segment's operating loss persists, and whether the remediated control weakness stays remediated.
Strengths
- Organic growth is real: like-for-like Q2 +18.8% and H1 +15.9%, with Wind +50.8% on rising electrical-control-system shipments
- A thick backlog: remaining performance obligations of $423.1M (1.21× TTM revenue), H1 orders of ~$230M, book-to-bill of ~1.22×
- A large market with a structural tailwind: power transformers $30.38B → $41.62B by 2030, grid modernisation $38.91B → $81.97B (16.0% CAGR), 9–17× the G2 bar
- No debt and near net cash: $181.9M of cash, zero borrowings, H1 operating cash flow of $48.7M — a self-funded structure
- Turned profitable: from an FY2023 operating loss of $(11.4)M to FY2025 operating profit of $11.4M and H1 FY2026 operating profit of $15.2M
Concerns
- Thin moat: network effects are structurally weak in hardware (B1 4) and distribution is direct utility sales with no viral lever (B2 5) — moat converts to only 36.7, the lowest of the recent trio
- Growth quality: two-thirds of the +42.8% Q2 increase is the Comtrafo acquisition, Q3 guidance of >$80M is a sequential step down, and management warned pulled-forward demand could make the next quarter harder
- Customer concentration: Inox Wind is 18% of total revenue — and 100% of the Wind segment, so one customer is a whole division
- Margins falling: gross margin 30.5% in FY2025 → 27.3% in H1 FY2026, and the Grid segment swung to an operating loss of $(2.3)M in H1
- Control weakness history: a material weakness in Comtrafo purchase accounting drew an adverse ICFR opinion as of 2026-03-31 — remediated 2026-09-30, but identified within the last 12 months; plus earnings flattered by a $9.4M contingent-consideration gain in H1
Research notes
Thesis: bought growth, thin moat
American Superconductor Corporation enters the BlitzLab record with a first scoring of 39 out of 100, grade D, built from Speed 15 out of 25, Moat 22 out of 60, Creative Destruction 10 out of 15, and deductions of 8. The total sits 26 points below the 65-point line, and the shape of the score is the story: on the radar conversion used by the model, Creative Destruction converts to 66.7, Speed to 60.0, and Moat to only 36.7 — the thinnest moat of the recent trio. This is a grid-equipment company — trailing-twelve-month revenue of $349.0 million — whose reported growth of 42.8% in the second quarter is two-thirds acquired, whose backlog of $423.1 million is 1.21 times trailing revenue, and whose Wind division is a single customer. Both gates pass, so the scoring proceeds.
The gates: both pass — organic growth proven, market ample
Gate 1, two pieces of product-market-fit evidence for a growth company, passes on a confirmed basis. Like-for-like organic growth was +18.8% in the second quarter and +15.9% in the first half on a pro forma basis, and remaining performance obligations stood at $423.1 million at 30 September 2026, with first-half orders of about $230 million at a book-to-bill of roughly 1.22 times. Gate 2, a ten-year market ceiling at least ten times current revenue, passes on a confirmed basis: the power-transformer market was $30.38 billion in 2025 and is estimated at $41.62 billion by 2030, already 8.7 times the bar of about $3.49 billion on 2025 figures alone. The third quarter of fiscal 2026 has not been reported at T, and its reporting date is unconfirmed — it is not a company-confirmed date and must not be presented as one — and no outcome is anticipated here. That is the balance of the record at T: growth that is real but largely bought, a moat that is thin by the nature of the hardware business, a division that is one customer, and a control weakness remediated but fresh in the record.
More Power & Energy companies
Other Power & Energy names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: Solaris Energy Infrastructure (59/C), Bloom Energy (58/C), Forgent Power Solutions (50/C).
Next earnings
Q4 2026 · Expected
Coverage
American Superconductor Corporation · Next earnings unconfirmed at scoring · Score 39 · Grade D
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.