BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Firefly Aerospace — Blitz Index 41 (C)
$1.5B backlog, 20% margins — the contracts convert or the cash runs out.
41Grade C
Confidence: High · Category: frontier
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 17 / 25 | Q2 2026 +657% YoY (SciTec acquisition-driven); $1.5B backlog; FY26 guidance 95% booked |
| B · Moat | 24 / 60 | 6 NASA CLPS missions; Eclipse + NSSL Lane 1; VICTUS repeat wins |
| C · Creative destruction | 9 / 15 | First commercial Moon landing (Blue Ghost M1); responsive-launch category creator |
| D · BlitzFailing | −9 | H1 2026 operating cash flow −$144M (~21-month runway); PE sponsor 36.7%; Alpha failure scars |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 40 · Speed 68 · Creative 60.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (repeat NASA/defense contracts) · G2 ✓ estimated (bar ≈ $2.9B, backlog covers ~52%). 24 points below the threshold — first score. Effectively unlevered; the risk is cash burn, not debt.
Strengths
- FY2026 guidance $420–450M (95% booked)
- $1.5B backlog
- Eclipse NET 2027
- Debt-free + $305M revolver undrawn
Concerns
- Growth is acquisition-driven (organic inseparable)
- GM 20.3% · OP margin −80.9%
- Alpha reliability scars
- IPO −62% price decline (not scored)
Next earnings
Nov 10, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
Firefly Aerospace Inc. · Q3 2026 due Nov 10, 2026 (AMC) · Score 41 · Grade C
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.