Flutter Entertainment plc — Blitz Index 48 (C)
Flutter scores 48 — the world's largest online betting operator, holding U.S. #1 share (39% sportsbook, 27% iGaming) while defense costs eat the margin.
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 15 / 25 | TTM revenue $17,161M (+15.2%); FY2025 +17% — but Q2 2026 only +3% (organic +4%), U.S. −6%, guidance cut to $17.91B midpoint |
| B · Moat | 34 / 60 | Global #1 scale (14.3M AMP) + Flutter Edge pricing data + cross-brand sell; no true two-sided network effect (multihoming is routine), and distribution is paid (U.S. S&M +61% in Q2) |
| C · Creative destruction | 10 / 15 | Regulated online wallet replacing licensed retail and illegal/offshore operators; prediction-market bridge opens unopened states — replacement in progress, not complete |
| D · BlitzFailing | −11 | Net debt $10.48B, leverage 2.2x → 4.3x in 18 months; FY2025 GAAP loss −$407M (India $556M impairment); four tax/regulatory fronts (UK, Illinois, Brazil, India) |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 56.7 · Speed 60 · Creative 66.7.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (weak pass — Q3 NFL season is the test) · G2 ✓ (tense pass on the global pool — bar ≈ $171.6B vs $293B 2024 global online GGR). 17 points below the threshold — first score.
Strengths
- World #1 at TTM $17.2B (+15.2%) — ~2.8x DKNG's $6.2B scale
- U.S. #1 held (sportsbook 39%, iGaming 27% GGR) + U.S. AMP +9%, direct-casino AMP +26%
- Second curve is real: FanDuel Predicts + market-making (~$50M expected in 2026), Brazil, Italy Snai integration, Alberta
- International +10% in Q2 — diversification offsetting U.S. weakness
- CEO transition executed as announced (Taylor took office 2026-10-01) — no governance gap
Concerns
- Q2 adjusted EBITDA −45%, U.S. −70% — defense costs overwhelming margin
- Leverage 4.3x (2x the end-2024 level) + net debt $10.48B — M&A debt aftermath
- Guidance cut (revenue −$395M, EBITDA −$210M at midpoint) — second cut in the sequence
- Four tax/regulatory fronts (UK, Illinois, Brazil, India) + federal-state clash over prediction markets
- Q2 group AMP −11% — management itself concedes market-growth slowdown
More Platforms companies
Other Platforms names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: Alphabet (82/A), Meta (78/B), Snowflake (76/B).
Next earnings
Nov 4, 2026 · Before open · Confirmed
Coverage
Flutter Entertainment plc · Q3 2026 update Nov 4, 2026 (BMO) · Score 48 · Grade C
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.