10x Genomics, Inc. — Blitz Index 40 (C)
10x Genomics scores 40 — three flat years, a patent-settlement cash pile, and a second act (Atera) still booked, not billed.
Confidence: High · Category: frontier
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 11 / 25 | Three flat years: FY2023 $618.7M → FY2024 $610.8M → FY2025 $642.8M (+5.3% only on $46.1M settlement licences; core −2.3%). H1 2026 core +5.7% is the first reversal signal |
| B · Moat | 31 / 60 | 8,046 installed instruments + 79% consumables repeat revenue + a patent portfolio defended in court; 69.1% FY2025 gross margin — but no true user-to-user network effect |
| C · Creative destruction | 9 / 15 | Single-cell plus spatial resolution replacing bulk tissue analysis without location context — the category creator, in a platform-vs-platform fight (Bruker, Vizgen, Akoya, Illumina) |
| D · BlitzFailing | −11 | Settlement optics (licences $46.1M, gains $49.9M flatter headline growth and profit) + Class B ~45.6% of votes + SBC 16.9% of revenue + open Illumina/Element suits |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 51.7 · Speed 44 · Creative 60.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (confirmed PMF, second curve press-reported) · G2 ✓ (estimate — broad TAM only; bar ≈ $6.17B). 25 points below the threshold — first score.
Strengths
- Spatial consumables +19% (FY2025) → +23.0% (H1 2026) — the workflow shift is real
- 8,046 cumulative instruments with consumables at 79% of FY2025 revenue
- Cash plus securities $552.0M, no borrowings, H1 2026 FCF ~$39.9M
- Atera: 40+ booked orders ahead of revenue recognition
- Gross margin 69.1% (FY2025) → 74% in Q2 2026
Concerns
- TTM revenue $616.9M equals FY2023 — three years without growth
- FY2025 growth (+5.3%) is entirely settlement licences ($46.1M); core revenue fell 2.3%
- Instrument revenue −39% (FY2025) and −47% (Q2 2026) — Atera wait-and-see demand
- Class B holds ~45.6% of votes on ~7.7% of shares
- U.S. −21% and China −35% in Q2 2026; open suits against Illumina and Element remain
More Frontier companies
Other Frontier names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: Rocket Lab (62/B), Tesla (62/B), Illumina, Inc. (60/B).
Next earnings
Nov 5, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
10x Genomics, Inc. · Q3 2026 due Nov 5, 2026 (AMC, confirmed) · Score 40 · Grade C
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.