Rigetti Computing, Inc. — Blitz Index 32 (D)
A superconducting quantum pioneer with $7.1M of system sales in nine months and a 99.5% fidelity milestone — held back by a $2.9M backlog, lumpy system sales, and a creative-destruction case with no production proof.
Last re-scored: November 14, 2026.
Rigetti Computing enters the BlitzLab record with a first scoring of 32 out of 100, grade D, built from Speed 11 out of 25, Moat 23 out of 60, Creative Destruction 4 out of 15, and deductions of 6. The total sits 33 points below the 65-point line, and the shape of the score is the story: on the radar conversion used by the model, Speed converts to 44.0, Moat to 38.3, and Creative Destruction to only 26.7. This is a superconducting gate-model quantum company — trailing-twelve-month revenue of $12.8 million — whose Cepheus-1-108Q system (108 qubits, twelve 9-qubit chiplets) hit its 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity milestone, whose nine-month revenue grew 110% year on year on $7.1 million of Novera system sales, and whose backlog is about $2.9 million in remaining performance obligations plus an $8.4 million C-DAC order awaiting acceptance. Both gates pass, but both pass on the borderline: the first on organic growth that rides on two system sales and a backlog thinner than the order it depends on, the second on a quantum market whose 2035 size is estimated at $28–72 billion with no vendor split for the superconducting slice. The fourth quarter of 2026 has not been reported at T, and its reporting date is unconfirmed — it is not a company-confirmed date and must not be presented as one — and no outcome is anticipated here. That is the balance of the record at T: a technology with real milestones, a business that rides on single system sales, dilution that funds the build, and a government customer base that supplies nine-tenths of revenue.
Rigetti Computing, Inc. scores 32 on the Blitz Index (grade D). A superconducting quantum pioneer with $7.1M of system sales in nine months and a 99.5% fidelity milestone — held back by a $2.9M backlog, lumpy system sales, and a creative-destruction case with no production proof. Speed contributes 11 of 25, Moat 23 of 60, and Creative destruction 4 of 15, after 6 points in deductions.
Confidence: Medium · Category: frontier
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 11 / 25 | Nine months +110% is real, but it is two Novera system sales and Q3 fell 28% — growth rides on single system sales, with Q4 C-DAC acceptance the swing variable |
| B · Moat | 23 / 60 | Direct sales plus QCS plus hyperscaler marketplaces (Braket, Azure, qBraid), with a 40.4% nine-month gross margin — but no network effect and cloud usage of $0.3M in nine months |
| C · Creative destruction | 4 / 15 | Quantum displacing classical computing is a clear thesis, but there is no production displacement, no behaviour change and no cost-structure proof at Rigetti's customers yet |
| D · BlitzFailing | −6 | No debt and net interest income (D1 −2), but a non-cash warrant gain behind the 'improved' loss and 90.2% government revenue (D2 −3), plus CHIPS conditionality (D4 −1) |
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Radar axes (0–100): Moat 38.3 · Speed 44 · Creative 26.7.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (borderline — organic growth at +110% for nine months and a backlog of ~$2.9M in RPO plus the $8.4M C-DAC order, but Q3 revenue fell 28% and the backlog is thin) · G2 ✓ (low confidence — the broad quantum market reaches $28–72B by 2035 against a $128M bar, though the narrow superconducting market has no vendor split). 33 points below the 65-point threshold — the technology milestones are real, the commercial proof is two system sales, and the creative-destruction case is the weakest of the three axes. Watch the Q4 C-DAC acceptance, Q4 bookings, and whether CHIPS funding starts to flow.
Strengths
- Nine-month revenue of $10.9M (+110% YoY) on $7.1M of Novera system sales — real product revenue, not a research promise
- Cepheus-1-108Q at 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, meeting its milestone, with a 300+ qubit system targeted by mid-2028
- Cash and investments of $497.1M with no debt plus access to up to $100M in CHIPS funding — about 4.1 years of runway at the current burn rate
- The $8.4M C-DAC order for a 108-qubit system, the company's largest, awaiting customer acceptance in Q4 2026
- Gross margin improving to 40.4% for the nine months (60.7% in Q3) from 27.1% a year earlier
Concerns
- Backlog is thin: RPO of ~$2.9M is 0.23x trailing-twelve-month revenue, and the $8.4M C-DAC order sits outside it, unaccepted
- Lumpy by construction: Q3 revenue of $1.41M (−28% YoY) with zero system sales, after Q2 of $5.14M — one transaction moves the quarter
- Three straight years of revenue decline (FY2022 $13.1M to FY2025 $7.1M) before this rebound — the trajectory is unproven
- Government dependence: 90.2% of FY2025 revenue and 81.5% of Q3 revenue from government entities, with the top two customers at 52% of nine-month revenue
- Dilution machine: stock comp at 191% of nine-month revenue, weighted-average shares +10.3% YoY, $102.0M of unrecognised RSU comp, and 7.7M shares issued to the Department of Commerce
Research notes
The gates: both pass — growth proven, market ample on the stated definition
Gate 1, two pieces of product-market-fit evidence for a growth company, passes on a borderline basis. Organic growth is real: nine-month revenue of $10.9 million, up 110% year on year, with no acquisitions anywhere in the story, and trailing-twelve-month revenue of $12.8 million, up 71% year on year. The backlog is the second prong: remaining performance obligations of about $2.9 million, plus the $8.4 million C-DAC purchase order for a 108-qubit system to be deployed in the fourth quarter, plus deferred revenue of $3.9 million and about $4.8 million of capitalised contract fulfilment costs for a future system delivery. This is not the 'product revenue $0' pattern of ACHR and ARCT — the nine months included $7.1 million of system sales. But the borderline is explicit: the RPO alone is 0.23 times trailing-twelve-month revenue, the C-DAC order sits outside the RPO and its recognition depends on customer acceptance, third-quarter revenue fell 28% year on year with zero system sales, and revenue declined for three straight years before this rebound. Repeat purchases are not evidenced — development contracts are described in the filing as multi-year, non-recurring arrangements, and cloud access revenue is $0.3 million for nine months. Gate 2, a ten-year market ceiling at least ten times current revenue, also passes, but with low confidence. Revenue is GAAP revenue. The bar is about $128 million, ten times trailing-twelve-month revenue of $12.8 million. The addressable market is quantum computing, with the superconducting gate-model slice as the narrow definition: the broad market is $28–72 billion by 2035, or 219–562 times the bar, and even a 10–25% superconducting share of that range implies $2.8–18 billion, or 22–140 times the bar. The verdict is low-confidence because there is no vendor split for the superconducting slice, and the 2025 market for quantum companies ($1.1–1.4 billion) implies today's narrow market sits near the bar — the pass rests on the ten-year ceiling, not on today's market. The deductions are the other half of the gate story: 6 points — debt at minus 2, revenue quality at minus 3, and regulatory cost at minus 1 — so the company is not flagged. If the Q4 C-DAC acceptance is recognised and bookings recover, the gates firm up; if the acceptance slips, Gate 1 is re-examined.
More Frontier companies
Other Frontier names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: Rocket Lab (64/B), Tesla (62/B), Illumina (61/B).
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Same sector
Next earnings
Not announced.
Coverage
Rigetti Computing, Inc. · Q3 2026 reported Nov 10, 2026 · Score 32 · Grade D
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Frequently asked questions
Why does Rigetti Computing, Inc. score 32 out of 100?
The Blitz Index adds Speed (11 of 25), Moat (23 of 60) and Creative destruction (4 of 15), then subtracts 6 points in deductions, for a total of 32 — grade D. The strongest section is Speed (11 of 25); the weakest is Creative destruction (4 of 15).
What is Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s strongest area?
Speed — Nine months +110% is real, but it is two Novera system sales and Q3 fell 28% — growth rides on single system sales, with Q4 C-DAC acceptance the swing variable. It scores 11 of 25.
What is the biggest risk for Rigetti Computing, Inc.?
Deductions total 6 points — No debt and net interest income (D1 −2), but a non-cash warrant gain behind the 'improved' loss and 90.2% government revenue (D2 −3), plus CHIPS conditionality (D4 −1). The concerns list also flags: Backlog is thin: RPO of ~$2.9M is 0.23x trailing-twelve-month revenue, and the $8.4M C-DAC order sits outside it, unaccepted
When was this score last updated?
Last re-scored: November 14, 2026. Scores are refreshed after quarterly results; the date above is the most recent re-scoring.
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.