BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
AeroVironment — Blitz Index 35 (D)
A loitering-munition explosion behind broken controls.
35Grade D
Confidence: High · Category: frontier
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 16 / 25 | FY2026 +140.9% — over half is BlueHalo; organic +26.5% but Q1 FY2027 +5.7% is a cliff |
| B · Moat | 22 / 60 | Programs of record ($990M Switchblade IDIQ, $464M E-HEL); GM collapsed 39.6%→25.3%; FFP 70% puts overruns on AVAV |
| C · Creative destruction | 8 / 15 | Loitering munitions 7.0× in 3 years ($120.6M→$848.3M) — war-driven demand, not commercial PMF |
| D · BlitzFailing | −11 | ICFR material weaknesses ×2 + adverse auditor opinion + 10-Q/A; $240.7M goodwill impairment 9 months post-deal; shares +79%/year |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 36.7 · Speed 64 · Creative 53.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (borderline — acquired bar). Accounting is the D-grade reason.
Strengths
- PSDS $120.6M→$848.3M (3yr 7.0×) — loitering-munition explosion
- Switchblade $990M IDIQ + LASSO program of record — prime status
- $1,457.8M funded backlog (record), book-to-bill 1.4
- Q4 FY2026 $641.6M record revenue
Concerns
- ICFR material weakness ×2 + adverse auditor opinion + 10-Q/A
- $240.7M goodwill impairment 9 months after the BlueHalo deal
- GM 25.3% (−14.3pp), operating loss −$311M — margin collapse
- Shares +79% in a year; OCF −$78.4M on $1.98B revenue
Next earnings
Dec 8, 2026 · Expected
Coverage
AeroVironment, Inc. · Q3 FY2027 due Dec 2026 (expected) · Score 35 · Grade D
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.