BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Okta — Blitz Index 55 (C)
Growth slowed four years straight. Gross margin rose three. The line is about proof, not pace.
55Grade C
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 14 / 25 | Revenue growth decelerated 4 straight years (+55.6%→+11.8%); cRPO +14.1% > revenue +10.6% is the early re-acceleration signal |
| B · Moat | 38 / 60 | Identity moat with 9,000+ integrations; GM 74.3%→77.4% 3 years running; Microsoft Entra bundling is the structural headwind |
| C · Creative destruction | 10 / 15 | Replacing legacy IAM; AI-agent identity is the next frontier — revenue unproven |
| D · BlitzFailing | −7 | Two breaches (2022, 2023) at an identity company — D4 −3 on the CPNG scale; McKinnon 26.7% vote control |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 63.3 · Speed 56 · Creative 66.7.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (borderline — 36.5% of claimed TAM). The atlas line: margin direction decides.
Strengths
- cRPO +14.1% outrunning revenue +10.6% — leading indicator ahead of sales
- ~30% of Q2 bookings from new products (Identity Governance leading)
- First GAAP annual operating profit + 28% FCF margin
- $1M+ ACV customers 600+ (+20%) — large-enterprise penetration accelerating
Concerns
- 4 straight years of decelerating revenue growth — re-acceleration still a cRPO signal
- Microsoft Entra bundling — structural headwind, vulnerable to price destruction
- Two security breaches (2022·2023) at an identity company
- McKinnon 26.7% voting control on 3.9% economics
Next earnings
Dec 2, 2026 · Expected
Coverage
Okta, Inc. · Q3 FY2027 due Dec 2026 (expected) · Score 55 · Grade C
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.