BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Toast — Blitz Index 60 (B)
GPV $60.7B (+22%), ARR $2.4B (+25%), 180,000 locations (+22%) — the GAAP operating turnaround (−$287M to +$292M) rides on the spread, not the gross.
60Grade B
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 20 / 25 | All four KPIs growing in the 20s: locations +22%, ARR +25%, GPV +22%, recurring gross profit +28% |
| B · Moat | 34 / 60 | No true network effect; switching-cost moat plus a data flywheel feeding Toast Capital underwriting |
| C · Creative destruction | 11 / 15 | Legacy on-premise POS replaced by a cloud all-in-one stack — SaaS + fintech are 97% of revenue |
| D · BlitzFailing | −5 | Founders hold 51.0% voting power; interchange regulation risk; hardware GP −$220M loss leader |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 56.7 · Speed 80 · Creative 73.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (borderline). 5 points below the threshold — first score. The restaurant OS at the harvest of blitz act one, seeding act two on internal cash.
Strengths
- 4 KPIs all growing in the 20s (locations +22% · ARR +25% · GPV +22% · recurring GP +28%)
- Record net add of +9,500 locations in the quarter — the distribution engine is running
- GAAP operating profit $292M (FY2025) + OCF $661M · FCF $608M — debt-free compounding
- Subscription GP margin 71.8% — the software core's margin
Concerns
- Founders' combined 51.0% voting power — absolute control over act two's capital allocation
- G2 rests on a 2023-vintage global TAM — the US alone falls short of the $68B bar
- Hardware GP −$220M and the loss is growing in absolute terms — buying stores with hardware
- Q2 2026 FCF −37% YoY — working-capital swing needs one more quarter of proof
Next earnings
Nov 3, 2026 · Expected
Coverage
Toast, Inc. · Q3 2026 due Nov 3, 2026 (expected) · Score 60 · Grade B
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.