BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Roblox — Blitz Index 63 (B)
bookings $6.79B (+55%) against GAAP $4.89B (+36%) — the lead indicator is decelerating while the headline accelerates.
63Grade B
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 19 / 25 | FY2025 bookings $6.79B (+55%); Q2 2026 bookings +8% — the lead indicator is decelerating |
| B · Moat | 42 / 60 | DevEx $1.5B+/yr creator lock-in; 18+ cohort hours +40%, spend +50%; Japan DAU +67% |
| C · Creative destruction | 12 / 15 | Zero-marginal-cost UGC + AI creation tools — the user-to-creator flywheel |
| D · BlitzFailing | −10 | Child-safety litigation (MDL 3166); Baszucki 58.8% vote; SBC 19–23% of revenue |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 70 · Speed 76 · Creative 80.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓. 2 points below the threshold — first score. The creator economy's strongest lock-in against the industry's heaviest regulatory shadow.
Strengths
- FY2026 guidance: bookings +8–12%, revenue +20–25%
- DevEx $1.5B+ creator payouts
- FCF $1.35B (+111%) — second straight cash turnaround year
- Japan DAU +67% · India +64%
Concerns
- Q2 bookings +8% — headline +36% masks lead-indicator deceleration
- MDL 3166 child-safety litigation (148 cases) + 3 state AGs
- Age-verification rollout slowed the signup pipeline (company-admitted)
- SBC 19–23% of revenue — structural dilution
Next earnings
Oct 29, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
Roblox Corporation · Q3 2026 due Oct 29, 2026 (AMC) · Score 63 · Grade B
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.