StubHub Holdings, Inc. — Blitz Index 54 (C)
StubHub scores 54 — the strongest moat in the batch (B 41) on two-sided ticket liquidity, held back by demerits of −13.
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 16 / 25 | Q2 +33% and H1 +23.1% re-acceleration, but FY2025 revenue fell −1.4% and Q4 2025 fell −16% — only two quarters of reversal so far |
| B · Moat | 41 / 60 | Two-sided liquidity (B1 12) plus an 83% adjusted gross margin (company non-GAAP; no GAAP gross-profit tag) — but sales and marketing cost 54% of revenue |
| C · Creative destruction | 10 / 15 | Open resale and price discovery replace closed primary-only ordering for sold-out events — Ticketmaster's primary dominance caps displacement |
| D · BlitzFailing | −13 | Leverage 3.0× plus the FY2025 GAAP-vs-adjusted gap (SBC $1,447.7M incl. $1,400.7M IPO charge) plus Class B 100-vote shares and live regulatory risk |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 68.3 · Speed 64 · Creative 66.7.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (confirmed, with caveat — FY2025 revenue −1.4% masked GMS underlying +18%) · G2 ✓ (borderline estimate — take-rate-normalised, bar ≈ $19.4B). 11 points below the threshold — first score. Demerits −13, near the FLAG threshold (15).
Strengths
- Q2 2026 revenue +33% and H1 +23.1% — re-acceleration after the FY2025 −1.4% (take-rate cut plus Eras Tour base)
- Underlying GMS +18% in FY2025 and TTM GMS ~$10.0B — the marketplace, not the take rate, is growing
- Two-sided liquidity across 200+ countries and regions, with ~50% North America secondary share
- Primary Direct Issuance (MLB partnership) plus international GMS growing faster than North America
- IPO proceeds ~$1B funded $1.1B of debt reduction in 12 months; net leverage fell 4.5× → 3.0×
Concerns
- FY2025 GAAP net loss −$1.9B vs adjusted EBITDA $232M — a $1,400.7M IPO SBC charge plus a $479M valuation allowance
- Demerits −13 sit 2 points from the FLAG threshold (15) — any D-item deterioration triggers a watch
- Class B shares carry 100 votes each; founder Eric Baker holds >50% of votes (~88% computed)
- Sales and marketing was 54% of FY2025 revenue — distribution is bought, not viral
- FTC $10M settlement (Apr 2026) over all-in pricing, plus Q2 2026 fulfilment complaints and refund delays
More Platforms companies
Other Platforms names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: Alphabet (82/A), Meta (78/B), Snowflake (76/B).
Next earnings
Nov 10, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
StubHub Holdings, Inc. · Q3 2026 due Nov 10, 2026 (AMC, confirmed) · Score 54 · Grade C
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.