BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Super Micro Computer — Blitz Index 43 (C)
The margin is the thesis — and the margin collapsed.
43Grade C
Confidence: High · S&P 500 · Category: ai-infra
⚠️ BlitzFailing watch. Total deductions of −15 or more flag this company for structural monitoring, regardless of score.
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 19 / 25 | FY2026 +77.8%; FY2027 guidance +66–84%; $60B+ in new orders |
| B · Moat | 29 / 60 | #2 global server share (IDC 6.1%); Vera Rubin NVL72 already shipping |
| C · Creative destruction | 10 / 15 | AI-server second boom; direct-liquid-cooling leadership |
| D · BlitzFailing | −15 | ⚠️ BlitzFailing watch: ICFR material weakness persists; DOJ/BIS probes; GM 6.3→17.5→~10.6% |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 48 · Speed 76 · Creative 67.
Watch item
⚠️ BlitzFailing watch (D −15 = the line). Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ estimated. 22 points below the threshold — first score. The business case and the trust case are two different scores; the model only scores the business.
Strengths
- $60B+ order backlog
- FY2027 guidance $65–72B
- Accounting review resolved without restatement
Concerns
- Margin collapse guided 10.4–10.8%
- Receivables +178% · inventory +175%
- Bank debt 36× in a year
- Family supply-chain concentration
Next earnings
Nov 3, 2026 · After close · Expected
Coverage
Super Micro Computer, Inc. · Q1 FY2027 due Nov 3, 2026 (AMC) · Score 43 · Grade C · ⚠️ BlitzFailing watch
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.