BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Carvana — Blitz Index 53 (C)
units +52%, SG&A/unit −41% — against 13–14% coupons and an 83% family vote.
53Grade C
Confidence: High · S&P 500 · Category: platforms
⚠️ BlitzFailing watch. Total deductions of −15 or more flag this company for structural monitoring, regardless of score.
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 20 / 25 | H1 2026 revenue +52.2% YoY at $25B scale; units 596,641 (+43%) |
| B · Moat | 37 / 60 | 1.5M-unit reconditioning capacity (2.5× sales); FY2026 EBITDA guide raised $2.7–3.0B |
| C · Creative destruction | 11 / 15 | Turnaround as creative destruction: the used-car stack rebuilt |
| D · BlitzFailing | −15 | ⚠️ BlitzFailing watch: 13–14% coupons + PIK; Garcia 83% vote; GPU falling 3 quarters |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 62 · Speed 80 · Creative 73.
Watch item
⚠️ BlitzFailing watch (D −15 = the line). Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓. 12 points below the threshold — first score. The business case (68 pre-demerits) and the trust case are two different scores.
Strengths
- 10 straight quarters of growth + profitability
- FY2026 EBITDA guidance $2.7–3.0B (raised)
- Reconditioning capacity 1.5M units (2.5× sales)
- +50 institutional 13F holders
Concerns
- GPU down 3 straight quarters (Q2 −$412) — peak-unit-profit question
- 13–14% coupons + PIK + indenture covenants — extension is not repayment
- Garcia family 83% vote + $1,721M TRA + DriveTime related-party
- 62.2M shares short — 10.23 days to cover
Next earnings
Oct 28, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
Carvana Co. · Q3 2026 due Oct 28, 2026 (AMC) · Score 53 · Grade C · ⚠️ BlitzFailing watch
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.