Genius Sports Limited — Blitz Index 50 (C)
Genius Sports scores 50 — official sports data growing 62% with a first operating profit, held back by acquisition debt whose quarterly interest exceeds that profit, and a moat rented from league contracts.
Last re-scored: November 5, 2026.
Confidence: Medium · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 17 / 25 | Q3 revenue +62.3%, nine months +52.3%, FY2026 guidance above $1B — and the first operating profit, $10.4M, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.3% |
| B · Moat | 31 / 60 | Exclusive NFL and Premier League data rights with a two-sided league-to-sportsbook network (B1 8, B2 10) — but league contracts can be lost at auction, and Sportradar shares the duopoly |
| C · Creative destruction | 11 / 15 | Official data and in-play betting displacing unofficial feeds and pre-match wagering, with prediction markets opening the next displacement |
| D · BlitzFailing | −9 | Legend acquisition debt: quarterly interest of $19.1M exceeds the $10.4M operating profit (D1 −4); GAAP net loss persists (D2 −2); betting-advertising limits and prediction-market regulation (D4 −3) |
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Radar axes (0–100): Moat 51.7 · Speed 68.0 · Creative 73.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (confirmed — growth accelerating: Q3 +62.3%, first operating profit, plus a second curve in media and prediction markets) · G2 ✓ (estimated — data services extrapolate to ~$26.5B by 2036, ~3.0× the bar, plus media and prediction markets). 15 points below the 65-point threshold — first score. No FLAG: deductions of 9. Watch: whether the Legend debt principal is confirmed next quarter, whether media growth is organic or acquired, and whether the league rights survive the next auction cycle.
Strengths
- Growth accelerating: Q3 +62.3%, nine months +52.3%, FY2025 +31%, FY2026 guidance raised to $1.015–1.035B
- First operating profit: Q3 $10.4M, adjusted EBITDA $87.1M (+156%), margin 32.3%, free cash flow $53.6M
- Second growth curve showing: media +126%, prediction-market partnerships (Kalshi, Polymarket), Prediction.com launched
- Official-data duopoly: exclusive NFL and Premier League rights, betting +33% on price rises and renewals
- A large market: data services extrapolate to ~$26.5B by 2036, ~3.0× the bar — plus media and prediction markets
Concerns
- Acquisition-debt burden: $19.1M of quarterly interest exceeds the operating profit; nine-month free cash flow is −$136.2M and the principal is unconfirmed
- Quality of growth: media growth includes the Legend acquisition — organic and acquired growth need separating
- GAAP net loss persists: −$15.7M in Q3, FY2025 −$111.6M (NFL warrant share-based compensation)
- League-contract auction risk and the Sportradar duopoly — share gains are assumed, not secured
- Regulation: tightening betting-advertising limits, prediction-market uncertainty, and the social cost of gambling
Research notes
Thesis: accelerating growth, bought on credit
Genius Sports enters the BlitzLab record with a first scoring of 50 out of 100, grade C, built from Speed 17 out of 25, Moat 31 out of 60, Creative Destruction 11 out of 15, and deductions of 9. The total sits 15 points below the 65-point line, and the shape of the score is the story: creative destruction converts to 73.3 and speed to 68.0, while the moat converts to only 51.7. This is the official sports-data company — trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $893.8 million — whose third quarter grew 62.3%, whose guidance now clears $1 billion for fiscal 2026, and which reported its first operating profit of $10.4 million. The catch sits one line below that profit: quarterly interest of $19.1 million on the Legend acquisition debt exceeds the operating profit it was taken on to buy, leaving a net loss of $15.7 million for the quarter.
The gates: both pass — the moat is rented, not owned
Gate 1, two pieces of product-market-fit evidence for a growth company, passes on a confirmed basis. Revenue growth is accelerating — Q3 +62.3%, nine months +52.3% — and the second curve is showing: media grew 126%, prediction-market partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket are live, and Prediction.com has launched. Gate 2, a ten-year market ceiling at least ten times current revenue, passes as an estimate: data services extrapolate to about $26.5 billion by 2036, roughly 3.0 times the bar, before media and prediction markets are added. The fourth quarter of 2026 has not been reported at T, and its reporting date is unconfirmed — it is not a company-confirmed date and must not be presented as one — and no outcome is anticipated here. That is the balance of the record at T: a duopoly position in official data that is real but re-auctionable, a first profit that the debt bill already exceeds, and a market whose ceiling depends on prediction markets staying legal.
What the business is: official data sold to both sides of the bet
Genius Sports sells official sports data. Leagues supply it — the NFL, the Premier League and others grant Genius exclusive official-data rights — and sportsbooks buy it to price in-play betting, while media companies buy it to power content. Revenue in the third quarter of 2026 was $269.9 million, split between Betting at $153.0 million (up 33.4% year on year) and Media at $116.9 million (up 126.4%, including the Legend acquisition). The products are the data feeds themselves, real-time odds, streaming through BetVision, which combines live video with betting, the Moment Engine for automated content, and Prediction.com, launched in September 2026. The commercial model is multi-year contracts with leagues and sportsbooks, renewed with price increases and add-on services — that renewal dynamic is what drove Betting's 33% growth. The second curve is prediction markets: partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket put Genius data into a new demand pool that did not exist in the betting business a few years ago.
Why it scored 50: acceleration, a first profit, and a debt bill above it
Speed is 17 out of 25, converting to 68.0. Growth (A1, 8 of 10) is accelerating: revenue rose from $510.9 million in fiscal 2024 to $669.5 million in fiscal 2025, up 31.0%, then $653.3 million in the first nine months of 2026 (up 52.3% year on year) and $269.9 million in the third quarter alone (up 62.3%), with fiscal 2026 guidance raised to $1.015–1.035 billion. The withheld points are about quality: Media's 126% includes the Legend acquisition, so organic and acquired growth cannot be separated, and Betting's 33% is driven more by price increases and renewals than by volume. Capital speed (A2, 3 of 5) is mixed: the third quarter produced free cash flow of $53.6 million, 61% of adjusted EBITDA, and the first operating profit of $10.4 million — but nine-month free cash flow is still negative $136.2 million, and quarterly interest of $19.1 million, up from $0.1 million a year earlier, exceeds that first operating profit. Hiring (A3, 2 of 5) is unscored on evidence because the 2026 headcount is undisclosed. Share momentum (A4, 4 of 5) is the duopoly position with Sportradar and the prediction-market land grab. The moat is 31 out of 60 (51.7): network effects 8 on the two-sided league-to-sportsbook structure, distribution 10 on the NFL, Premier League and hundreds of sportsbooks, market size 8, and gross margin 5 — the adjusted EBITDA margin reached 32.3% in the quarter, up from 20.4%, but the exact GAAP gross margin was not disclosed. Creative destruction is 11 out of 15: the displacement of unofficial scraped data by official real-time data (4), the irreversibility of in-play betting (4) and the automation of odds-making (3).
The risks: the Legend debt and the re-auctionable moat
The deductions total 9. Debt (D1, minus 4) is the largest: the Legend acquisition was bought on credit, and the quarterly interest bill of $19.1 million — annualised about $76 million — exceeds the $10.4 million operating profit the debt was taken on to create, leaving a net loss of $15.7 million for the quarter. The principal itself is undisclosed in the sources reviewed, estimated at around $1 billion of term loan from the interest scale, and the year-end cash guidance of about $260 million against nine-month free cash flow of negative $136.2 million leaves little slack. Revenue quality (D2, minus 2) reflects the acquisition mix in Media and the fiscal 2025 net loss of $111.6 million, driven by a one-off rise in NFL-warrant stock-based compensation. Regulation (D4, minus 3) is the structural exposure: betting rules differ by country and state and are tightening, advertising restrictions such as the Premier League's front-of-shirt sponsor ban can dampen data and media demand indirectly, prediction markets sit in an unresolved federal-versus-state conflict, and the social costs of gambling — addiction and integrity risk — attach directly to the business. No fine or sanction has been realised, which is why the item stops at three points. Governance (D3) is zero, with no dual-class or founder-control structure disclosed.
What would change the score
The most direct lever is the debt: disclosure of the principal, a repayment schedule, and interest falling back below operating profit would lift the largest deduction and prove the Legend acquisition earns its keep. The second is growth quality — Media growth reported with the Legend contribution separated, so the organic rate is visible, and Betting growth driven by volume rather than price. The moat's durability turns on league renewals: the NFL and Premier League rights are the asset, and they are re-auctionable, so a renewal at a higher price or a loss to Sportradar would move the score in opposite directions. Prediction markets are the swing factor for Gate 2: the market ceiling of about $26.5 billion by 2036 is 3.0 times the bar on data services alone, but reaching the bar needs about 34% of that market, and regulatory clarity for prediction markets would widen the headroom the score currently assumes.
More Platforms companies
Other Platforms names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: Alphabet (83/A), Meta (78/B), Airbnb (76/B).
Next earnings
Q4 2026 · Expected
Coverage
Genius Sports Limited · Next earnings unconfirmed at scoring · Score 50 · Grade C
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.