GeneDx Holdings Corp. — Blitz Index 56 (C)
GeneDx scores 56 — guidelines and Medicaid coverage built the distribution, genomic data builds the moat, and volume growth outruns revenue growth.
Confidence: High · Category: frontier
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 16 / 25 | FY2024 +50.8% → FY2025 +40.0% → TTM +25.4%, but quarterly growth decelerated +17% → +11% while exome/genome volume grew +33% — ARR flat at $3,258 |
| B · Moat | 36 / 60 | Rare-disease genomic data flywheel (GeneDx Infinity) plus guideline-and-coverage distribution: AAP/ACMG first-line recommendations, Medicaid in 39 states, Epic ordering — payor groups A+B are 62% of revenue |
| C · Creative destruction | 11 / 15 | Exome/genome as the first test replacing the multi-year diagnostic odyssey of sequential single-gene and panel tests — institutionalised by guidelines, not yet complete (39 states, panels still $50.9M) |
| D · BlitzFailing | −7 | Adjusted profit (+$41.8M in 2025) vs GAAP loss (−$21.0M) gap, ~$55M Q1 2026 gap unexplained in the pack, plus reimbursement-policy dependence and $5.6M legal reserves |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 60 · Speed 64 · Creative 73.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (confirmed) · G2 ✓ (borderline estimate — passes only if growth continues; bar ≈ $4.54B). 9 points below the threshold — first score.
Strengths
- Exome/genome volume +30.5% (2025) → +33.0% (H1 2026) — the blitz is in test count
- AAP and ACMG first-test recommendations plus Medicaid coverage in 39 states
- Adjusted gross margin 71.2% with operating cash flow turned positive in 2025
- Exome/genome now 43% of results (47% in Q4) — the mix shift is the story
- Epic Aura in-hospital ordering embeds the test in clinical workflow
Concerns
- Revenue growth decelerated +17% → +11% while volume grew +33% — ARR flat at $3,258
- FY2026 guidance cut $540–555M → $475–490M in Q1 2026
- Adjusted net income +$41.8M vs GAAP net loss −$21.0M in 2025 — the gap is the debate
- Two payor groups are 62% of revenue — reimbursement renegotiation is the speed limit
- Cash fell $38.8M in H1 2026 while the Blackstone facility was expanded to $150M
More Frontier companies
Other Frontier names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: Rocket Lab (62/B), Tesla (62/B), Illumina, Inc. (60/B).
Next earnings
Nov 9, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
GeneDx Holdings Corp. · Q3 2026 due Nov 9, 2026 (AMC, confirmed) · Score 56 · Grade C
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.