On Holding AG — Blitz Index 57 (C)
On Holding scores 57 — a premium running brand whose constant-currency growth (+21.6%) is hidden by FX, and whose margin beat tariffs without a refund.
Confidence: High · Category: consumer
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 17 / 25 | Constant-currency +21.6% (Q2) and +24.0% (H1) vs reported +13.5%/+14.0% — an 8.1pp FX drag masks the growth |
| B · Moat | 36 / 60 | DTC 45.7% plus premium wholesale and APAC expansion; gross margin 65.4% (+3.9pp) while absorbing tariffs with no refund in guidance |
| C · Creative destruction | 10 / 15 | Swiss-engineered CloudTec positioning displaces the legacy Nike/Adidas running order in the premium tier — coexistence, not replacement |
| D · BlitzFailing | −6 | Founder-team voting power ~56.1% (D3 −3) plus FY2025 FX loss −CHF 173.2M; no borrowings and SBC of just 2.2% limit the damage |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 60 · Speed 68 · Creative 66.7.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (confirmed) · G2 ✓ (borderline estimate — bar ≈ CHF 32.2B requires top-3 global performance-brand share). 8 points below the threshold — first score. Financials are reported in CHF (filing currency; not converted to USD).
Strengths
- Constant-currency growth +21.6% in Q2 2026 and +24.0% in H1 — the reported +13.5% hides an 8.1pp FX drag
- Gross margin 62.8% → 65.4% in Q2, raised to 65%+ for the year, while absorbing US tariffs (no refund assumed)
- DTC share 45.7% (from 41.1%) plus APAC +43.1% and apparel +47.7% — a three-layer second curve
- Cash CHF 1,019.9M at end-2025 with effectively no borrowings and SBC at just 2.2% of sales
- Full-price discipline held — no discounting to chase wholesale growth
Concerns
- Reported growth is decelerating and Q2 missed consensus (CHF 850.3M vs ~CHF 878–881M expected)
- FY2025 FX loss of −CHF 173.2M cut net income −15.9% while operating profit rose +78.2%
- Founder team holds ~56.1% of combined voting power (20-F) — a structural governance discount
- Wholesale grew only +4.8% — the price-integrity trade-off
- Manufacturing concentrated in Vietnam and Indonesia, with US tariff absorption still a burden
More consumer companies
Other consumer names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (58/C).
Next earnings
TBD · Unconfirmed
Coverage
On Holding AG · Q3 2026 due Nov 10–17, 2026 (aggregator range, unconfirmed) · Score 57 · Grade C
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.