BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Circle — Blitz Index 52 (C)
USDC circulation +67% in 18 months — but 96% of reported revenue is interest on reserves.
52Grade C
Confidence: High · Category: platforms
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 17 / 25 | USDC circulation +67% in 18 months (SEC); on-chain quarterly volume $14.8T (+151% YoY); 60%+ share of dollars in use |
| B · Moat | 33 / 60 | MiCA license · federal bank charter · GENIUS regime — a 3-layer regulatory moat; Arc L1 mainnet + 100+ builders |
| C · Creative destruction | 11 / 15 | The regulated digital dollar displacing SWIFT and card settlement — thin G2 margin (1.4–1.6x optimistic) |
| D · BlitzFailing | −9 | 95%+ of revenue is rate-dependent (−$442M on −90bp, SEC); distribution costs 60.6% of revenue; USDT 60.6% vs USDC 24.2% |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 55 · Speed 68 · Creative 73.3.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (thin). 13 points below the threshold — the circulation blitzes; the economics leak.
Strengths
- USDC circulation +67% in 18 months (SEC) — the stablecoin blitz is real
- On-chain quarterly volume $14.8T (+151% YoY) — 60%+ share of dollars in use
- Arc L1 mainnet + 100+ builders — the second curve has substance
- RLDC margin 41.2% improving + GAAP profit ($48.2M/quarter) — profitability secured
Concerns
- 95%+ of revenue depends on rates — −90bp costs −$442M (SEC quantified)
- Distribution costs at 60.6% of revenue — over half the growth shared with partners
- USDT 60.6% vs USDC 24.2% — market-cap share stalled
- GENIUS §4(a)(11) yield-ban scope on partner rewards still unresolved
Next earnings
Nov 4, 2026 · Confirmed
Coverage
Circle Internet Group, Inc. · Q3 2026 due Nov 4, 2026 (confirmed) · Score 52 · Grade C
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.