BlitzLab Scoring · Oct 2026 · Model v1.0 (frozen)
Astera Labs — Blitz Index 61 (B)
$34.8M → $852.5M in four years — a single unnamed customer is over 70% of it.
61Grade B
Confidence: High · Nasdaq-100 · Category: ai-infra
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 19 / 25 | FY2021→2025 revenue 24.5×; TTM +98.5%; Q3 guidance +133% |
| B · Moat | 33 / 60 | Scorpio fabric switch now the largest product line; retimer leadership |
| C · Creative destruction | 10 / 15 | Connectivity fabric for the AI buildout — the bottleneck's bottleneck |
| D · BlitzFailing | −1 | Single end-customer >70%, top-3 ~86%, no minimum purchase; warrants drag GM |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 55 · Speed 76 · Creative 67.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ · G2 ✓ (borderline, TAM-estimated). 4 points below the threshold — first score. Zero long-term debt ($1.25B cash) funds the fastest organic growth in the dataset.
Strengths
- Q3 2026 guidance $540–560M (~+133% YoY)
- TTM revenue $1.2B (+98.5%)
- Gross margin 72–79% band; GAAP operating margin 22.7%
- $1.25B cash, zero long-term debt
Concerns
- Single end-customer >70% of revenue (unnamed, 10-K Item 1A)
- Top-3 customers ~86% — no minimum purchase commitments
- G2 clears the bar at only 1.7× estimated TAM
- Broadcom·Marvell·Credo among 7 named competitors
Next earnings
Nov 3, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
Astera Labs, Inc. · Q3 2026 due Nov 3, 2026 (AMC) · Score 61 · Grade B
BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.