Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR): Lending on a Blockchain — A Pre-Scoring Deep Dive

Figure puts home-equity loans on a blockchain, funds them in a median 10 days against an industry median of about 43, and has just closed a roughly $590 million acquisition of Kiavi. The shares are down about 40% this year. This is the research before any score — and the next checkpoint, third-quarter results, arrives on November 12.

18 min read · Unscored deep dive · T = November 10, 2026 · Not investment advice

Figure Technology Solutions listed on Nasdaq in September 2025 at $25.00 a share. Fourteen months later the stock tells a story of a boom and a slide: a 52-week high of $78.00 in January 2026, a 52-week low of $19.54 on November 5, 2026, and a sharp rebound on Monday, November 9 — up 7.9% to close at $24.52, for a market capitalisation of about $5.1 billion (Finnhub, November 9) and a year-to-date decline of about 40%. On November 9, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut its price target to $37 from $45 while maintaining its Outperform rating; that $37 is the lowest target in MarketBeat's set of 12 analysts, whose average target was $52.43 as of November 10, 2026. Those targets are coverage facts, not this article's view: BlitzLab assigns no price targets and no buy or sell opinion. The third quarter is the first to include Kiavi, the residential real-estate investor lender Figure agreed to buy in June and closed on September 1, and the first in which the $600 million of 8.5% senior notes issued to fund that deal will show up on the balance sheet. The business underneath the share price, meanwhile, is growing fast: second-quarter revenue more than doubled year over year, and preliminary third-quarter marketplace volume of $5.12 billion came in at the high end of the company's own guidance.

The business in one paragraph

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. — Nasdaq: FIGR, Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market; SEC CIK 0002064124; a Nevada corporation headquartered in Reno — describes itself as "the leading blockchain-native capital marketplace for the origination, funding, sale and trading of tokenized assets." It was founded in 2018 by Mike Cagney, former chief executive and chairman of SoFi from 2011 to 2017, and June Ou, both of whom sit on the board. (The S-1 describes Cagney as SoFi's chief executive and chairman, and this article uses that wording.) The chief executive since April 2024 is Michael Tannenbaum, formerly chief operating officer of Brex; the chief financial officer since December 2024 is Macrina Kgil, formerly CFO of Blockchain.com. The company holds more than 180 lending and servicing licences and 48 money-transmitter licences, and operates an SEC-registered broker-dealer running an alternative trading system. Control is concentrated: Class B shares carry 10 votes each against 1 for Class A, and Cagney and Ou together control a majority of the combined voting power, making Figure a Nasdaq "controlled company." At June 30, 2026 there were 178,794,505 Class A shares, 37,893,047 Class B shares and 6,941,715 shares of Blockchain Common Stock outstanding — about 223.6 million shares in total. The core product is the home-equity line of credit, or HELOC — a loan secured against the equity in a borrower's home. During the year ended December 31, 2025, HELOCs comprised over 98% of Figure's total loan originations, according to the 10-K. That is a fiscal-2025 figure; the company has not disclosed a HELOC share for 2026, so this article does not extrapolate it.

The blockchain lending model: speed as the product

Figure's Loan Origination System, the LOS, is the machine at the centre of the business. A borrower can apply in as little as five minutes and be funded in as few as five days; the median time from application to funding is 10 days, against an industry median of about 43 days, according to the 10-K. The cost claim is just as stark: average production cost of about $717 per loan, against a Mortgage Bankers Association industry average of $11,109 (as of September 30, 2025). The automation is specific — automated income verification, an automatic valuation model in place of a traditional appraisal, digital lien matching and remote closing where permitted. Operations and processing costs in the second quarter of 2026 ran at about 67 basis points of Consumer Loan Marketplace volume, down from 79 basis points a year earlier, and weekly applications surpassed $1 billion as of July 2026, according to the chief executive's statement in the second-quarter release. The LOS does not only originate Figure's own loans. It is the origination engine for a partner network that grew fast in 2026: 489 active origination partners at June 30, 2026, up from 307 at December 31, 2025, with 102 added in the second quarter alone. Partner-branded volume was $6.40 billion of the $8.38 billion Consumer Loan Marketplace volume in fiscal 2025, against $1.98 billion Figure-branded.

The marketplace layer on top is Figure Connect, launched in June 2024, an electronic marketplace directly connecting loan sellers and buyers. In the second quarter of 2026 it handled $2.773 billion of the $4.259 billion of marketplace volume — 65% — up 262% year over year; its full-year 2025 volume was $3.842 billion, and about $3.9 billion of HELOC volume had been transacted by third parties on it since launch, across 48 marketplace participants at December 31, 2025. Behind Figure Connect sits a funding backstop: the Sixth Street joint venture known as the Guarantor Vehicle, formed in February 2025 and 95% owned by Sixth Street, which buys HELOCs originated on the LOS and sold via Figure Connect and then sells them into Figure HELOC securitisations. It is not consolidated in Figure's financials. The blockchain itself enters through DART, the Digital Asset Registry Technology, an electronic registry tracking servicing rights and loan ownership in the United States on the Provenance Blockchain. In 2025, 87% of LOS loans used DART, up from 2% in 2024; 88% of partner-branded loans did. That is the sense in which the lending is "on a blockchain": the loan is originated by software, its ownership and servicing rights are registered on-chain, and it is then sold without the paper chase that makes a traditional HELOC take six weeks.

Two newer products extend the same logic beyond HELOCs. Democratized Prime, launched in June 2025, is an on-chain lend-borrow marketplace that the company presents as disrupting traditional prime brokerage: lenders get pro-rata exposure to all borrowers, fees are 50 basis points of the outstanding balance paid by the borrower, and HELOC collateral is liquidated through a weekly auction process if a loan-to-value limit is breached. It had not generated material revenue at December 31, 2025, but by September 30, 2026 it had $588 million of matched offers, $600 million of borrower demand and $825 million of available lender supply — up from $392 million, $414 million and $522 million at June 30. Figure Exchange, a digital-asset marketplace launched in March 2024, also did not generate material revenue in 2025. Small-business financing is a newer, smaller line: volume rose 57% quarter over quarter in the second quarter, and the company said in October 2026 that it funded more than $50 million of small-business financing in September 2026 — a press-release claim.

The financial picture

The growth is real, and it is filed, not merely claimed. Fiscal 2025 total net revenue was $506.9 million, up 48.7% on 2024, with net income of $134.3 million against $19.9 million the year before, and adjusted EBITDA (a non-GAAP measure) of $251.2 million. The second quarter of 2026 accelerated: GAAP net revenue of $225.6 million, up 113% year over year, net income of $87.4 million, up 192%, diluted earnings per share of $0.35, a net income margin of 38.8% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 54.6%. The first half of 2026 produced $392.6 million of revenue and $132.5 million of net income. On a trailing-twelve-month basis to June 30, 2026, computed from the filings, GAAP net revenue was $708.9 million and net income $237.4 million. Marketplace volume tells the same story: $4.259 billion in the second quarter, up 132%, and $7.161 billion in the first half, up 124%.

The second-quarter revenue mix shows where the money comes from: ecosystem and technology fees $72.9 million, gain on sale of loans $57.6 million, gain on servicing asset $29.1 million, origination fees $26.3 million, interest income $22.8 million, servicing fees $11.3 million, and smaller marketable-securities and other income. In 2025, about 71% of total net revenue came from origination fees, gain on sale, servicing fees and interest income from LOS-generated assets — down from 82% in 2024 — with Figure Connect and new products growing faster than LOS-only sources, according to the 10-K. The take rate, though, is drifting the other way — 3.6% in the second quarter against 4.0% a year earlier — which is one of the numbers to watch on November 12. The balance sheet at June 30, 2026 is strong on its face: cash and equivalents of $1,437.5 million, total assets of $3,017.7 million, total debt of $963.0 million and total equity of $1,413.1 million, with an accumulated deficit of $54.3 million — much improved from $187.0 million at the end of 2025. But the June 30 balance sheet predates the Kiavi funding: the $600 million of 8.5% senior notes due 2031 closed on July 14, 2026, after quarter-end, so they are not in these figures and will first appear in the third quarter. At 8.5%, those notes carry implied annual cash interest of about $51 million. The debt already on the balance sheet includes $424.6 million of YLDS-related debt to related parties.

Provenance, OPEN and YLDS: the tokenisation stack

Figure's most distinctive claim is that the plumbing is a blockchain, not a database. The Provenance Blockchain is an independent Layer 1 blockchain on which every asset passing through Figure's system is recorded; the company says more than $70 billion of real-world and digital-asset transactions have moved across it since its launch in late 2018. Real-world-asset total value locked was about $14 billion at December 31, 2025, with about a 75% share of tokenized private credit — a company claim citing RWA.xyz data, labelled as such here rather than stated as an independent fact. The chain's native token is HASH, used for staking, governance and gas fees; the average gas fee has been less than 1 HASH, about $0.02, since 2018, according to the 10-K. On January 14, 2026, the community voted for Figure to execute community directives for the Provenance Blockchain Foundation, which remains an independent entity, with governance authority staying with HASH holders through on-chain voting, Figure and the Foundation abstaining from voting Foundation-controlled HASH, and June Ou remaining a director of the Foundation. Figure holds about 25% of outstanding HASH, according to the company.

On top of Provenance sits OPEN, the On-chain Public Equity Network, where companies issue equity natively on the blockchain and trade it on Figure's alternative trading system — designed to reduce reliance on centralised clearing and settlement. Figure's own Blockchain Common Stock trades on OPEN as FGRS, alongside its Nasdaq listing as FIGR. The first outside test of the network is OpenWorld, Inc. (Nasdaq: OPNW): its stockholders approved a Blockchain Common Stock class on October 16, 2026, and on October 25 the company confirmed the dual listing on Figure OPEN "remains on track to go live in Q4 2026" — with no new shares, no capital raise and no dilution, a blockchain-native version of existing Nasdaq shares. YLDS is the yield-bearing stablecoin of the group, and its legal form is the point. It is issued by Figure Certificate Company, an SEC-registered face-amount certificate company, and YLDS are the digital representation of SEC-registered interest-bearing debt securities — not a bank deposit, not a money-market fund share, and, in the company's framing, a registered security rather than a "payment stablecoin" under the GENIUS Act. The rate floats at overnight SOFR minus 35 basis points, with a 0% floor — never a fixed yield, and never the SOFR-minus-50-basis-points figure that appears in some stale secondary material; the prospectus governs. Interest accrues daily and is paid monthly, in dollars or in YLDS, and the certificates are backed by short-term US Treasuries and Treasury repo. Figure's economic benefit is the 35-basis-point spread it retains; net interest income from YLDS in 2025 was $1.1 million. Circulation was $328 million at December 31, 2025, rose to $556 million at June 30, 2026, and stood at $504 million at September 30, 2026. It has since spread from Provenance, where it launched in February 2025, to Solana in November 2025 and Stellar in May 2026.

Kiavi: the price, correctly

The Kiavi acquisition is the biggest strategic move in Figure's short public life, and it is also the deal most often misreported — because three different dollar figures are all real, and they measure three different things. The signing headline, agreed on June 10, 2026, was $532.4 million of cash payable to Kiavi equityholders before customary closing adjustments for cash, indebtedness, transaction expenses and working capital. The total transaction, including the Sixth Street joint venture's purchase of Kiavi's residential-transition loan assets, was $717 million — Figure's planned contribution of $538 million plus Sixth Street's $179 million. And the figure that actually changed hands, disclosed in the closing 8-K of September 1, 2026, is that Figure paid approximately $590 million in cash, net of cash acquired, after those adjustments — about $58 million more than the signing headline. In short: Figure paid about $590 million for Kiavi's technology platform and its debt-service-coverage rental loans; the total transaction including Sixth Street's share was $717 million. Writing that Figure "acquired Kiavi for $717 million" without the Sixth Street qualifier overstates what Figure paid, and writing $532.4 million as the price paid understates it. The structure explains the split. Kiavi, founded in 2013 as LendingHome and rebranded in 2021, is an AI-powered lending platform for residential real-estate investors, offering residential transition loans — short-term bridge loans for fix-and-flip projects — and DSCR loans, where the rental income of the property services the debt. At closing, the residential-transition loan assets went to a Sixth Street-controlled joint venture, while Figure kept the operating platform, the technology and the DSCR loans; Kiavi survives as a wholly owned subsidiary, and Figure repaid its credit facilities in full at closing. The deal was funded principally by the $600 million of 8.5% senior notes due 2031 that closed on July 14, 2026, with a $600 million 364-day bridge commitment from Bank of America and Barclays as backstop at signing.

What Figure bought, on the company's own investor deck of June 10, 2026 — figures that are unaudited deck figures, labelled as such — is more than $7 billion of annual residential-transition and DSCR volume, more than $250 million of fiscal-2025 revenue up 30% year over year, about $35 million of adjusted EBITDA, about 75% repeat business, a lifetime realised loss rate of about 0.50% on loans seasoned at least 24 months, 24 lifetime securitisations and about a 12% share of the residential-transition market in 2025. The company expects about $35 million of cost synergies within 24 months, a payback of the purchase price in under four years on an unlevered basis, and accretion to adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share after synergies. The strategic logic has three strands: Kiavi adds more than $7 billion of annual marketplace volume, including more than $100 million a month onto Democratized Prime; it shifts the mix toward first-lien loans, with pro-forma year-end 2027 volume expected to be more than 40% first-lien against a HELOC-heavy mix today; and it gives Figure a capital-light model for the transition-loan business, with the Sixth Street joint venture holding the balance-sheet assets while Figure Connect drives funding and distribution, backed by more than $3 billion of forward purchase commitments from Sixth Street. The deck puts the residential-transition market opportunity at more than $200 billion, characterised by fragmentation and inefficient, high-cost capital.

The other side: risks

The first risk is the one the concentration numbers make unavoidable. A business that drew over 98% of its 2025 originations from HELOCs lives and dies with American housing values and interest rates. The 10-K's risk factors name reliance on HELOCs and housing values and interest-rate sensitivity first among the business risks, and the second-quarter take rate — 3.6% against 4.0% a year earlier — is a reminder that pricing power in this market is not guaranteed. Kiavi diversifies the mix toward first-lien investor loans, but it swaps one credit exposure for another: fix-and-flip and rental loans are exposed to the same housing cycle, to the credit quality of small real-estate investors, and to the 0.50% lifetime loss rate holding up outside the benign conditions in which it was earned. The second risk is leverage and funding. The $600 million of 8.5% notes adds about $51 million a year of cash interest, on top of a business that depends on warehouse funding facilities to hold loans before sale — the June 30 balance sheet already carried $963.0 million of total debt, and the notes will push that higher in the third quarter. The accumulated deficit was still $54.3 million at June 30, 2026, and the 10-K lists the history of losses among its risk factors. Governance is the third risk: the dual-class structure leaves public shareholders with no practical check on decisions by Cagney and Ou, and Figure is a controlled company under Nasdaq rules. The fourth risk is regulatory and accounting. The classification of HASH as a security and the GENIUS Act's treatment of non-payment stablecoins are both disclosed uncertainties for YLDS and Provenance. And the controls history is recent: material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting existed as of December 31, 2024. The company says no material misstatement resulted, and that it remediated those weaknesses during 2025, concluding its disclosure controls were effective as of December 31, 2025. But as a newly public company it has not yet had a SOX 404 management report or auditor attestation of internal controls.

The G2 question: how big is the market, really?

BlitzLab's framework asks whether the new market a company is creating could plausibly grow to ten times its current revenue — for Figure, on trailing-twelve-month revenue of $708.9 million, that bar is about $7.1 billion. The answer depends entirely on how the market is defined, and Figure's own filings define it two different ways. The 10-K puts the opportunity at approximately $2 trillion of consumer credit and approximately $3 trillion of digital assets. The S-1, filed in September 2025, said the same $2 trillion of consumer credit but approximately $4 trillion of digital assets — the company revised the digital-asset figure down between filings, and this article uses the current 10-K figure of $3 trillion. Both are company assertions without a cited third-party source in the filing text reviewed, and the company has published no quantification of a narrow blockchain-lending market. Against the broad definitions, a $7.1 billion bar is trivially covered; against any narrow definition the company has published, it is not covered at all. That is the genuine open question for any future scoring: is Figure a lender with a cheaper origination machine competing in a $2 trillion consumer-credit market, or a tokenisation platform competing in a $3 trillion digital-asset market, or something narrower than either? No score is assigned in this article, and the question is left where the evidence leaves it — definitional, and unresolved.

What to watch on November 12

Third-quarter results are due on Thursday, November 12, 2026, before market open, with the conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern and a webcast at investors.figure.com, as confirmed by the company on October 22. It is the first quarter to include Kiavi, and the first to show the $600 million of notes on the balance sheet. What has already been disclosed, in preliminary and unaudited form on October 6, is volume: Consumer Loan Marketplace volume of $5.119 billion in the third quarter, up 20% sequentially and 107% year over year, at the high end of the $4.8–5.2 billion guidance issued with the second-quarter results. September volume alone was $1.783 billion, up 9% month over month and 104% year over year. Two caveats matter. First, the $5.119 billion excludes volume originated on the Kiavi platform after the September 1 close; Kiavi's roughly one month of post-close volume will be included with the third-quarter financial results,. Second, volume is not revenue: the question on November 12 is whether that volume converts to revenue at a take rate near the second quarter's 3.6%, and what Kiavi contributes to revenue, credit costs and the interest burden. The expectations the company will be measured against differ by source, and they should not be blended into a single number. Zacks' consensus, in its November 5 preview, is earnings per share of $0.31, down 8.8% year over year, on revenue of $249.5 million, up 59.9% — with an earnings ESP of −11.48% and a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Finnhub's consensus, accessed November 9–10, is earnings per share of $0.283 on revenue of $252.3 million. Zacks' figures are on its own adjusted basis: in the second quarter, consensus was $0.24 and Zacks recorded actual adjusted EPS of $0.37 against GAAP diluted $0.35. Worth listening for: Kiavi's first contribution and credit performance; the take rate on a much larger volume base; Democratized Prime, where matched offers reached $588 million at September 30; and YLDS, where circulation slipped 9% quarter over quarter to $504 million.