Rocket Lab vs AST SpaceMobile
The R&D blitz — near-zero debt, a $2.36B backlog, and a rocket that has not flown yet. The orbital blitz — building the constellation before the service exists.
Rocket Lab by 11
| Item | Max | Rocket Lab | AST SpaceMobile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blitz Index total | / 100 | 62 | 51 |
| Grade | — | B | C |
| A · Speed | / 25 | 19 | 19 |
| B · Moat | / 60 | 34 | 33 |
| C · Creative destruction | / 15 | 10 | 8 |
| D · Demerits | / 30 | -1 | -9 |
The success line is 65. Demerits (section D) are subtracted; a demerit total of 15 or more flags a company for BlitzFailing watch. Scores as of the 2026 Q4 review.
Verdict — business structure only
Rocket Lab leads (62 vs 51) with the same speed (19) but a slightly stronger moat (34 vs 33) and much lighter demerits (-1 vs -9). Both are space companies building before the service exists, but Rocket Lab has a $2.36B backlog (+137%) and near-zero debt, while AST SpaceMobile carries $4.1B of debt (~36x TTM) and faces FCC milestone risk. The moats are both early (backlog and partnerships), but Rocket Lab's is more proven (Space Systems +93.6%). The structural difference is that Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company (launch + spacecraft) while AST is a single-product bet (space-based cellular) dependent on MNO partners.
Key figures
| Rocket Lab | Figure |
|---|---|
| Backlog | $2.36B (+137%) |
| Growth | Organic ~+52% YoY |
| AST SpaceMobile | Figure |
|---|---|
| Backlog | $1.30B (~11x TTM) |
| Debt | $4.1B (~36x TTM) |
Key figures are from the companies' published score files (the scorecard's English summary). A figure is shown only where the score file states it.
Full scorecards: Rocket Lab — Blitz Index 62 · AST SpaceMobile — Blitz Index 51
Latest research — Rocket Lab: read the article
Latest research — AST SpaceMobile: read the article
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How to read this
Both companies passed the same two gates before scoring: real product-market traction (G1), and a ten-year market ceiling of at least ten times current revenue (G2). The Blitz Index then grades speed (25), moat (60) and creative destruction (15), and subtracts BlitzFailing demerits (up to −30) for debt, revenue quality, governance and regulatory cost. The model is frozen at v1.0; past scores are never silently rewritten. Our own pre-registered tests found the score measures business quality — it does not predict stock returns.
Research only — not investment advice. Scores measure blitzscaling strategy from public data. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.