e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. — Blitz Index 58 (C)
e.l.f. Beauty scores 58 — a mass-prestige expander whose headline growth is acquired, not organic, and whose margin must be read ex-refund.
Confidence: High · Category: consumer
Score breakdown
| Section | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| A · Speed | 16 / 25 | FY2026 +24.6% and Q1 FY2027 headline +36%, but organic Q1 fell high-single-digit; FY2027 organic guidance is only +6–7% |
| B · Moat | 37 / 60 | Four-layer distribution (mass retail, e-commerce, Sephora prestige, international) with a 70.7% FY2026 gross margin — headline 83% includes ~10.5pp of tariff refunds |
| C · Creative destruction | 10 / 15 | Prestige quality at mass prices via Rhode upends the price-quality ladder — but prestige incumbents coexist, so displacement is partial |
| D · BlitzFailing | −5 | Net debt ~$490M (~1.2× guided adjusted EBITDA) plus a GAAP-vs-adjusted earnings gap widened by the $50M refund and a $16.1M earn-out move |
Radar axes (0–100): Moat 61.7 · Speed 64 · Creative 66.7.
Watch item
Gates: G1 ✓ (confirmed, with caveat — second curve via Rhode, organic HSD decline) · G2 ✓ (estimate — bar ≈ $17.6B vs global beauty TAM). 7 points below the threshold — first score.
Strengths
- 30 straight quarters of net-sales growth — a rare durability record in beauty
- Rhode at $160M in Q1 FY2027, beating internal expectations, with Sephora and Mecca distribution
- International sales +61% in Q1 FY2027, now 21% of the total
- Underlying gross margin ~72.5% excluding the ~$50M IEEPA tariff refund — elite for mass beauty
- FY2027 guidance raised to +18–20% net sales, with adjusted EBITDA guided at $401–407M
Concerns
- Organic net sales fell high-single-digit in Q1 FY2027 — the core engine is cooling
- Headline +36% growth and the 83% margin both include acquisition and refund effects — read them apart
- Net debt ~$490M plus Rhode earn-out fair-value volatility ($16.1M increase in Q1)
- China sourcing tariff exposure, with refund repeatability unconfirmed
- Key-person dependence on Rhode founder Hailey Bieber (CCO and strategy adviser)
More consumer companies
Other consumer names on the Blitz Index, highest score first: On Holding AG (57/C).
Next earnings
Nov 4, 2026 · After close · Confirmed
Coverage
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. · Q2 FY2027 due Nov 4, 2026 (webcast 4:30pm ET, confirmed) · Score 58 · Grade C
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BlitzLab scores businesses against a scholar’s standard — not investment advice. No price targets, no buy/sell recommendations. Figures are from SEC filings (XBRL) as labeled in the source scorecard.